Mizuho Reaffirms ‘Outperform’ Rating on Tesla Amid Q2 Results

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh reiterated on July 24, 2025, an ‘Outperform’ rating and $375 price target on Tesla.

“TSLA reported inline 2Q25E Rev/EPS of $22.5B/$0.40 (vs. cons. $22.6B/$0.42).

Auto GMs ex-ZEV credits better at ~15% vs. cons. ~13.3%, up 250bps q/q.

TSLA did not guide 2025E deliveries noting ‘shifting global trade and fiscal policies’.

2Q25 deliveries were dn ~14% y/y, as we estimate full-year 2025E at dn 11% y/y though 2H25E slightly better with NA test drives up 20% q/q.

TSLA noting EV subsidy end in SepQ could see potential for some ‘rough quarters in 4Q25/1H26E’ with need to drive affordability/sales in the absence of subsidies.

Maintain Outperform, PT $375, adjust estimates, as we see TSLA positioned well to disrupt AV and Robotics despite near-term EV demand headwinds.”

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