UBS Remains ‘Neutral’ on Rivian After Q2 Earnings

UBS analyst Joseph Spak lowered on August 6, 2025, the price target on Rivian to $12 (from $13), while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating.

“2Q25 margins disappointed and 2025 EBITDA loss increased driven by 2Q performance and removal of credit revenue/profit for 2H.

Delivery guidance reiterated and RIVN expects a stronger 3Q, softer 4Q (post US EV consumer credit expiry).

That may leave us not really knowing underlying R1 demand until early 2026.

At that point, the bull case would be narrative shifts to R2, the product is a hit and RIVN can really lower cost/vehicle.

However, that part remains “show me” and the mid-term story has changed, in our view.

While management is still striving for EBITDA breakeven in 2027, the loss of reg. credits (100% margin) hurts and loss of consumer credits could lower R2 demand and/or price.

Management is trying to find mitigations, but we believe market will wait on proof here too.

We tweak our PT to $12 and remain Neutral rated.”

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