Jefferies Raises Ford’s Price Target to $9.00
Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois raised on August 11, 2025, the price target on Ford to $9.00 (from $8.00), while maintaining an ‘Underperform’ rating on the stock.
“Ford – U/P PT $9 ($8) – Guided FY net tariff of $2bn not very different from STLA ($1.7bn) or GM ($2-3bn ex Korea), adj for size.
Higher exposure to aluminum (50% tariff) offsets higher US final assembly, but also contributes to F’s ~25% lower average emissions in addition to high hybrid exposure.
As solid CAFE performer, Ford is less leveraged to looser GHG regulation.
However, Ford should be in position to materially reduce model e losses from 2026.
Q2 already shows lower -ve contribution from Europe sales (incremental Q2 revenue vs Q1 all came from Europe, but divisional losses barely budged from trend).
Lower unit losses in Europe, fewer US sales, peak Gen2 (skunkwork) investment and more competitive models all point to lower unit losses.
We update estimates post Q2, raising 2025E adj EBIT 2% to $6.9bn with Credit compensating for weaker Pro, and FCF +12% to $2.7bn on higher internal Credit divi, but still below guidance.
We raise 2026 adj EBIT 25% to a still modest 5% margin on better mix at Blue and reducing model e losses 20% to ~$3bn.
Valuation (7x 2026E) and warranty overhang keep us cautious.
Ford should update investors on its EV strategy and on Regulation on August 11 and 14.”
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