Jefferies Lowers Ford Price Target to $13

Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois lowered the price target on Ford (NYSE: F) to $13.00 (from $15.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“Ford – HOLD, PT $13.5 – The process of restoring F150 production after the Novellis fire and of finding the right management structure are taking longer than expected.

We expect total Q1 wholesales down -4.0% y/y with Blue EBIT $251m / 1.2% margin; Model e -$734m; Pro $1,147m / 7.7%.

Group adj EBIT $1,106m / 2.8%, up marginally from last year (+0.3pp y/y) with earnings still heavily weighted to Q2-4.

We build in Q1 CF half of the guided $1bn of tariff reimbursement and one quarter of the $4.5bn supplier EV compensation.

Adding some WC outflow, slightly higher capex and $250m dividend from Finco we assume FCF outflow ~750m in Q1.

We trim FY EBIT ~9% to $8.7bn with little change to Pro and Blue bearing the brunt of the slower recovery.”

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