UBS Reiterates Buy on Micron, $155 Price Target

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a Buy rating and $155 price target on Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU).

“Summary Thoughts Roughly 6-weeks after guiding the quarter, MU now expects FQ4 (Aug) revenue of ~ $11.2B (+$500MM vs UBSe $10.7B), GM of ~44.5% (+220bps vs UBSe 42.3%), and EPS of $2.85 (+$0.35 vs midpt/UBSe $2.50).

MU suggested continued strength in DC and consumer markets, with most of the upside coming from pricing, rather than volumes.

We believe this to be consistent with our latest round of industry checks reflecting similar dynamics: consumer inventories remaining at healthy levels, demand from smartphone/PC customers likely to remain steady into 4Q25 and hyperscaler DDR demand (and to some extent, eSSDs) upticking into 4Q25.

More importantly, this comes against a tariff backdrop that has grown increasingly benign. Consequently, we now return to modeling a modest DRAM/NAND upcycle lasting through 3Q26E.

We increase DDR ASP expectations to +5%/+3% Q/Q in 4Q25/1Q26 (vs -5%/-10% prior) and in NAND we increase ASP assumptions to +5%/+3% Q/Q (vs -7%/-15% prior) in 4Q25/1Q26.

For HBM, we slightly increase our industry demand forecast to 16.9B Gb in CY25 (vs prior of ~16.3B Gb; +96% Y/Y) and 26.1B in CY26 (vs prior of ~25.4B Gb; +55% Y/Y) reflecting increased forecasts for NVDA shipments in 2H25 and 2026.

However, as it relates to MU, we slightly trim HBM supply to 5.3B Gb in 2025 and 8.9bn Gb in 2026 due to our view that MU could face front-end capacity constraints (more below).

All things considered, investor interest is still surprisingly low on MU so we do feel the stock can continue working if the market gains more confidence in our ~$15 EPS in C2026 and belief that HBM by itself can support ~$5 EPS in C2026 and ~$6 EPS in C2027 (Figure 9MU HBcontribus oearnigs) – for which investors might pay a higher multiple.

Net, we raise estimates to reflect today’s positive preA and flow through our revised pricing assumptions, but our PT stays unchanged at $155. Maintain Buy.”

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