Deutsche Bank Increases Tesla’s PT to $435
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu raised on September 26, 2025, the price target on Tesla to $435 (from $345), while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.
“Ahead of 3Q25 deliveries next week, we raise our near-term estimates given stronger volume in the quarter but keep our full-year and 2026 outlook mostly unchanged.
We think Elon Musk’s clear focus on Tesla’s most important efforts (robotaxi and Optimus) and the recent compensation package have removed a large overhang on the stock and going forward, will allow Tesla to benefit from being a leader in embodied AI.
We raise our price target to $435 (up from $345), still based on a multi-modal SOTP framework, incorporating higher multiples in robotaxi and humanoid.
We expect Tesla’s 3Q25 deliveries to track meaningfully ahead of consensus expectations (433k), supported by the launch of Model Y L in China and US pre-buy effect ahead of EV incentives going away.
We forecast 461.5k deliveries or roughly flat YoY but up +20% QoQ.
We expect +20% growth in both China and N. America, with some decline in Europe as competition and branding continues to weigh in on demand.
In China QTD through the third week of September, registration data is tracking around 141k units (vs. our 159k estimate for the quarter).
Looking at the full-year, consensus is calling for 1.6m in deliveries which still appears achievable.
While US sales will likely dip materially in 4Q after the incentives are eliminated, this could be partially offset by a strong quarter in China.
We think 4Q volume could be somewhere between 2Q and 3Q, and model 409k units, leading to just below 1.6m units for the full year.
Margin-wise, we expect 4Q to decline by 100bps QoQ due to lower volume and potentially higher tariff costs.
All in, this translates to $1.53 in EPS vs. current consensus at $1.74.”
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