HSBC Increases Tesla’s Price Target to $127

HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall increased on September 29, 2025, Tesla’s price target to $127 (from $120), while reiterating a ‘Reduce’ rating on the stock.

“Based on the high-frequency data (daily and weekly run rates in China and Europe) we track, Tesla looks set to report strong Q3 volumes; up 23% QoQ on our estimates, which is nine percentage points ahead of VA consensus and seven percentage points ahead of company-collated figures.

Consensus expects 437-441k unit deliveries for Q3 compared to our forecast of 471k.

Tesla quarterly sales do tend to be lumpy with a heavy bias to the final month in the quarter, but we have reflected this in our forecast.

Away from cars, recent commentary from CESA (China’s Energy Storage Application Branch) also suggests ESS growth is likely to be strong.

In the US, the end of the EV tax credit is likely to have pulled forward demand.

We don’t expect the Q3’s 55k unit monthly run-rate to be the new normal, unless TSLA decides to fill the USD7.5k tax credit gap.

In Türkiye, favourable tax treatment for BEVs (and the Model Y refresh) saw TSLA volumes boom, so much so that YoY volume delta in Türkiye for Q3 was enough to more than offset the decline we saw in broader Europe.

This favourable tax treatment has since been amended, so it seems reasonable to assume TSLA volume growth will ease in Türkiye.

In Europe, TSLA has seen growth in Spain, but this has been accompanied by generous incentives, which raises questions around longevity.”

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