Stifel Lowers Tesla Price Target to $491

Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro lowered the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $491 (from $508) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“TSLA posted record 2Q26 deliveries of 480,126 and a revenue beat, but gross profit stalled and adjusted EBITDA of $3.27 billion missed consensus.

Gross margin of 16.8% fell from 21.1% in 1Q26 on lower ASP and mix, a ~$240 million energy warranty true-up, no repeat of 1Q26 tariff and warranty benefits, lower regulatory credits, and rising interest-rate subvention costs.

Importantly, we believe TSLA is making strong progress on FSD and Robotaxi, both critical to value creation, and see a demand resurgence evidenced by its largest order backlog since 2023 and the Model YL launch.

We maintain our Buy rating and are lowering our target price to $491 from $508 based on our sum-of-the-parts analysis. FSD adoption and robotaxi success are the two largest risks to our Buy rating.”

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