Stifel Tesla · TSLA

Stifel Lowers Tesla Price Target to $491

Analyst: Stephen Gengaro 1 min read Reproduced verbatim
Rating
Buy
Target
$491
from $508 (−3%)
Upside
+37%
TSLA at $358 today
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What the analyst said

Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro lowered the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $491 (from $508) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“TSLA posted record 2Q26 deliveries of 480,126 and a revenue beat, but gross profit stalled and adjusted EBITDA of $3.27 billion missed consensus.

Gross margin of 16.8% fell from 21.1% in 1Q26 on lower ASP and mix, a ~$240 million energy warranty true-up, no repeat of 1Q26 tariff and warranty benefits, lower regulatory credits, and rising interest-rate subvention costs.

Importantly, we believe TSLA is making strong progress on FSD and Robotaxi, both critical to value creation, and see a demand resurgence evidenced by its largest order backlog since 2023 and the Model YL launch.

We maintain our Buy rating and are lowering our target price to $491 from $508 based on our sum-of-the-parts analysis. FSD adoption and robotaxi success are the two largest risks to our Buy rating.”

Disclaimer
The price target and rating on this page are the opinion of the issuing research firm and its analyst, not of Price Target. This page is published for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.

Where the price stands

TSLA trades at $358. The 17 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $24.86 to $500, with a median of $442. This $491 target is 11% above the median.

Since the note TSLA has moved +15% (from $311). 12-month window: day 97 of 365, closes on August 3, 2027.

Track record

This callOpen: TSLA has not reached $491 yet. This 12-month target is scored on August 3, 2027.

Firm track recordStifel: 83% of its 42 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#6 of 26 firms); on Tesla, 7 of 8. Accuracy ranking →

Stifel on Tesla

Stifel price targets on Tesla

8 calls from April 24, 2025 to August 3, 2026. The target went from $450 to $491 (+9%). The rating stayed Buy.

Stifel targetTSLA share price
  1. August 3, 2026 This noteTarget cut from $508 (−3%)Buy$491
  2. April 23, 2026Kept the $508 targetBuy$508
  3. November 17, 2025Target raised from $483 (+5%)Buy$508
  4. October 23, 2025Kept the $483 targetBuy$483
  5. October 8, 2025Target raised from $440 (+10%)Buy$483
  6. September 5, 2025Target cut from $450 (−2%)Buy$440
  7. July 24, 2025Kept the $450 targetBuy$450
  8. April 24, 2025Earliest call shownBuy$450
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Other analysts on Tesla

CantorBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 26 $485maintained BarclaysBuy Upgraded, raised price target +22% Oct 26 $450from $370 StoneXBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 22 $475maintained BNP ParibasHold Upgraded Oct 22 Morgan StanleyHold Raised price target +2%, kept rating Oct 22 $410from $400
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Price Target is an archive of Wall Street analyst research, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets are the opinions of the issuing firms, not of Price Target. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.