Stifel Raises Tesla’s Price Target to $508
Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro raised the price target on Tesla to $508 (from $483) while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.
“Key Takeaways
(+) Robotaxi Progression in Existing and Potential Markets
Robotaxi progress continues in Austin and the Bay Area, and management noted plans to expand to roughly 8 – 10 metropolitan areas by year-end 2025.
Plans for robotaxis in parts of Austin are anticipated to be implemented by the end of 2025 without safety drivers, with additional expansion plans into Nevada, Florida, and Arizona.
(+) FSD Version 14 Updates
FSD Version 14 appears to be working well, and management highlighted plans to add “reasoning capabilities” in version 14.3 or 14.4.
Through advanced AI technology, FSD will be improved with more intelligent decision-making capabilities while using a 360-degree vision, aiding in tasks such as selecting optimal parking spots for drivers.
(-) Potential Pull-Forward of Deliveries Could Weigh on 4Q25
We had baked in some 3Q demand pull forward into our model.
The company noted on its 2Q25 earnings call that it could have a rough few quarters (potentially 4Q, 1Q, 2Q) following the expiry of the credit.
(=) Lower-Priced Vehicles Coming Slower-than-Anticipated
In response to the expiration of the EV tax credit in the United States, TSLA unveiled the Model Y standard and the Model 3 standard, both with over 300 miles of range, at $39,990 and $36,990, respectively.
We believe these vehicles could soften the impact of the EV tax credit expiration.
(+) Optimus Targets
CEO Elon Musk remains very optimistic on the long-term prospects of the Optimus robot.
TSLA expects prototypes of Optimus 3 “ready to show off” in 1Q26, and to scale production in 2026.
Mr. Musk expects to show a prototype by 1Q26 and aims to build a million-unit production line by the end of 2026, with a long-term initiative of scaling to ~10 million units.
He also noted expectations for Optimus 4 tobe around 10 million units of production and Optimus 5 of “maybe” 50 – 100 million units.
Changes to Forecasts
Increasing 2025-26 EBITDA Forecasts to $14,859 billion and $19,489 billion from $14,483 billion and $16,884 billion, respectively.
We are adjusting 2027 EBITDA estimate to $20,605 billion from $20,740 billion.
Trimming Target to $508 from $483 based on
- 20-25x projected 2026 EBITDA for the core business, equating to $134 per share;
- 75% of the estimated FSD, which equates to $186 per share;
- 75% of our estimated upside from Robotaxis, which equates to $158 per share;
- 50% of our estimated upside from Optimus, which equates to $29 per share.”
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