William Blair Reiterates ‘Market Perform’ Rating on Tesla
William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer reiterated on October 1, 2025, a ‘Market Perform’ rating on Tesla.
“Our Call
We are revising our delivery estimate higher ahead of the third-quarter release on Thursday, October 2.
The $7,500 EV tax credit ending has caused a significant pull-forward in U.S. demand and we now estimate 480,000 deliveries versus the Street’s 443,000.
Next quarter we are cautious on margins from a hangover on auto deliveries and lower regulatory credit revenue.
However, the market has looked through our concerns and momentum from robotaxi, Elon Musk’s stock purchase, and new energy storage products have pushed the stock to near all-time highs.
We are finding it increasingly difficult to maintain a Market Perform rating.
Raising Delivery Estimates
As expected, the end of the EV tax credit has caused a pull-forward in demand, but it has been stronger than we originally estimated.
U.S. demand for the new Model Y has been a bright spot, and a return in China and rest of world has offset the continued weakness in Europe.
We have raised our third-quarter delivery forecast from 437,000 to 480,000, compared to the Street’s 443,000 consensus.
We believe the buy-side is ahead of the sell-side here and closer to our estimate.”
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