CFRA Reiterates $8 Price Target and ‘Sell’ Rating on Rivian
- Rating
- Sell
- Unchanged
- Target
- $8
- Outcome
- Missed
- within 12 months
What the analyst said
CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson reiterated on October 2, 2025, a ‘Sell’ rating and $8 price target on Rivian.
“We maintain a 12-month target of $8, a premium to RIVN’s tangible book value of $5.00/share.
We lower our adjusted EPS estimate to -$2.95 from -$2.70 for ’25 and to -$2.65 from -$2.15 for ’26.
RIVN posted Q3 vehicle deliveries of 13,201 units (+32% Y/Y), below our 14,000 estimate.
RIVN’s Q3 production totaled 10,720 units (-19%), just shy of our 10,800 forecast.
RIVN also narrowed 2025 sales guidance to 41,500-43,500 vehicles from 40,000-46,000 previously, with the midpoint of the guidance being reduced by 500 units.
With Q3 marking the second straight quarter in which RIVN’s deliveries have exceeded production by a wide margin, RIVN now appears to be sitting on much lower inventory levels.
We maintain a Sell, seeing a material drop in EV demand beginning in the current quarter.
We find RIVN’s cash burn rates highly concerning and the construction of a new plant in Georgia should act as an even greater drag on free cash flow, which we expect to escalate balance sheet worries and weigh on equity performance.”
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Where the price stands
RIVN trades at $13.29. The 11 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $10 to $23, with a median of $18. This $8 target is 56% below the median, the lowest on the Street.
Since the note RIVN has moved −9% (from $14.61). The 12-month window closed on October 2, 2026.
Track record
This call✗ Not reached within 12 months: a year after the note RIVN closed at $14.30, 79% above the $8 target, but it moved the way the analyst expected.
Firm track recordCFRA: 78% of its 9 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months. Accuracy ranking →
