CFRA Reiterates $8 Price Target and ‘Sell’ Rating on Rivian

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson reiterated on October 2, 2025, a ‘Sell’ rating and $8 price target on Rivian.

“We maintain a 12-month target of $8, a premium to RIVN’s tangible book value of $5.00/share.

We lower our adjusted EPS estimate to -$2.95 from -$2.70 for ’25 and to -$2.65 from -$2.15 for ’26.

RIVN posted Q3 vehicle deliveries of 13,201 units (+32% Y/Y), below our 14,000 estimate.

RIVN’s Q3 production totaled 10,720 units (-19%), just shy of our 10,800 forecast.

RIVN also narrowed 2025 sales guidance to 41,500-43,500 vehicles from 40,000-46,000 previously, with the midpoint of the guidance being reduced by 500 units.

With Q3 marking the second straight quarter in which RIVN’s deliveries have exceeded production by a wide margin, RIVN now appears to be sitting on much lower inventory levels.

We maintain a Sell, seeing a material drop in EV demand beginning in the current quarter.

We find RIVN’s cash burn rates highly concerning and the construction of a new plant in Georgia should act as an even greater drag on free cash flow, which we expect to escalate balance sheet worries and weigh on equity performance.”

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