William Blair Comments on Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Results
William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer reiterated on October 2, 2025, a ‘Market Perform’ rating on Tesla.
“Pull-Forward Delivers New Record
Tesla is indicated up after releasing third-quarter deliveries of 497,099, a new record, beating our estimates by 3.5% and Street consensus by 12.2%.
We expected a strong delivery quarter and raised our estimates due to a pull-forward in demand as the EV tax credits ended on September 30.
Record Energy Storage Deployments
The company deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage, nearly in line with our estimate of 13 GWh.
The new Megablock product integrates the battery, switchgear, and transformer into one pre-assembled system, a game changer for the industry.
We view battery energy storage as critical to meeting the energy demand load for AI and expect this business to garner a lot more attention as part of the Tesla story in 2026. Valuation and Risks.
Shares trade at an enterprise value of 118x our 2026 EBITDA estimate factoring in the pre-market move, a significant premium to technology peers at 20-25x.
Risks include
- competition, particularly from Chinese EV and energy storage players;
- geopolitical risk, with large exposure to customers in China; and
- key-man risk with CEO Elon Musk.”
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