Bernstein Raises AMD Price Target to $200

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Stacy Rasgon raised the price target on AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) to $200 (from $140) while maintaining a Market Perform rating.

“On Monday morning AMD and OpenAI announced a sizeable AI infrastructure partnership , with OpenAI intending to deploy 6 GW of AMD GPU hardware over a multiyear period.

AMD is also granting OpenAI warrants in the company’s stock (up to 160M shares, vesting in tranches as the infrastructure ships, with exercise prices that rise with each tranche, up to $600 for the last one).We are taking an initial stab, and raising our AMD estimates and target price; maintaining our Market-Perform rating.

A lot remains unknown here (pace and timing of the ramp, warrant mechanics, content and margins, etc). But it feels like we know enough to take a rough stab.

We are assuming $15B/GW for now, putting in ~$2B in incremental revenues in Q426 (~0.15 GW) and another ~0.85 GW (~$12.5B) in FY27, now modeling ~$25.5B in total FY27 AI sales for the company (we have not changed any of our other revenue components at the moment).

We lower FY27 corporate GMs from ~56% to ~54%, and take FY27 opex up by ~$1B; overall our FY26 EPS moves from $4.90 to $5.20, and FY27 from $6.06 to $8.32 (a summary of our estimate changes can be found in Exhibit 2).

We raise our multiple from 25x to 30x (reflecting more potential growth to come), still applied to the average of our FY26/27 EPS, and raise our target price to $200 (prior $140).

We will continue to revisit our model as we get more information; we rate AMD’s stock Market-Perform.”

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