BNP Paribas Initiates Coverage on Tesla with $307 PT

BNP Paribas Exane analyst James Picariello initiated on October 16, 2025, coverage on Tesla with an ‘Underperform’ rating and a price target of $307.

“TSLA’s two AI-led ventures generate zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02T price target ($307/sh.; -30% downside).

Our dynamic valuation approach takes an optimistic view toward both the Robotaxi & Optimus businesses, w/ our “bull-case” DCF models out to 2040 supporting a max TSLA valuation of $2.7T.

We then discount these DCFs thru a series of respective milestone probabilities to arrive at our BASE-case ($1.02T value), which is still a robust interpretation of TSLA’s future.

The stock’s unfavorable risk/reward is clear, and w/ ’26E consensus far too high.

An active ’30E Robotaxi fleet of ~525K (vs. today’s leader, Waymo, targeting just 3.5K next yr.), 17M cumulative Optimus deliveries by 2040 (at $20K+ per unit), and >11M active FSD subscriptions in ’30E, helping to drive our positive view of TSLA’s Automotive global mkt. share.

Our unique comparative analysis of the “Mag 7” reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the “Mag 6’s” 2026 earnings.

We’ve also done extensive work on the operational milestones of Musk’s recent pay-package, which define TSLA’s “vision of success” to 2035.”

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