Mizuho Downgrades Rivian to ‘Underperform,’ Cuts PT to $10

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh downgraded on October 20, 2025, Rivian’s rating from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Underperform,’ while lowering the price target to $10 (from $14).

“Downgrading RIVN to Underperform on SOFTER 2026 EV Sales Outlook as IRA Credits End.

We lower our 2026E RIVN deliveries to 60k units from 68k previously (consensus 72k), now up ~40% y/y (still challenging) vs. consensus +69% y/y, as we see BEV demand soften.

N.Am EV LVP [North American Electric Vehicle Light Vehicle Production] is expected FLAT y/y, with General Motors (GM) recorded a $1.6B SepQ EV impairment charge (Link), signaling broader EV weakness.

IRA credits ending in the US is an added headwind as 3Q25 volumes were 13k, up 25% q/q, but with elevated ASPs (>$70k), near-term deliveries could struggle ahead of its expected R2 launch in 1H26E.

We are downgrading RIVN to Underperform, lowering estimates ~13% below consensus and PT to $10 $14 as US BEV Demand faces headwinds.”

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