Wedbush Reaffirms $600 Price Target on Tesla

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives reiterated on October 20, 2025, Tesla’s $600 price target and ‘Outperform’ rating.

“3Q Earnings on Tap; Focus on Robotaxi Buildout, Demand Stabilization and China

This Wednesday after the bell Tesla will report its FY3Q25 earnings with incremental positivity around this quarter’s results with the deliveries beat led by some pull-forward EV demand (US tax credit ending) and a relative bounce back in China sales.

After a brutal few quarters we are finally starting to see stable demand trends for Tesla. With some Model Y refreshes abound we expect generally positive commentary around more stable demand into year-end…although the EV tax credit ending in the US and sluggish Europe demand remains a headwind.

That said, the Tesla story going forward is around the Al transformation being led by the autonomous and robotics initiatives.

A major focus on the conference call will be the Robotaxi rollout across the US, vol- ume production trajectory for Cybercabs/Optimus in 2026, and the timing of any new models set to hit the road early next year.

Another key focus for Tesla investors is the upcoming shareholder meeting on November 6th in which we expect shareholders to approve Musk’s potential $1 trillion pay package and importantly lay the groundwork for a major investment in xAl that is a key ingredient in Tesla’s broader Al initiatives.

The earnings/guidance on Wed are clearly important but take a backseat to the broader and important Al initiatives at Tesla.

We continue to strongly believe the most important chapter in Tesla’s growth story is now beginning with the Al era now here.

It starts with autonomous then robotics as we believe the autonomous valuation is worth $1 trillion alone to the Tesla story over the next few years that will start to get unlocked over the coming months.

This quarter, the Street is looking for total revenues of $26 billion with automotive revenue of ~$19 billion which we believe is achievable given the strength across EV deliveries and energy generation.

GM ex-credits are expected to show further improvements this quarter on its upward trajectory from the lows over the past year, while EPS is expected to be $0.53 which we believe are beatable with a stronger impact from its energy division which carries a higher margin profile vs. its EV business.

While previously a headwind, China remains a source of strength with the Model Y spurring incremental demand in the region while the new six-seat Model YL has played a significant role with driving new demand for its fleet in the region despite seeing more low-cost models entering the market with China representing the heart and lungs of TSLA’s growth story.

Despite this tariff war playing out and changing daily, we believe that Tesla’s massive presence in China is a relatively good sign for Musk and Co. as Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory produces a significant amount of its global vehicles while rare earth minerals remain a crucial component for multiple products within the TSLA ecosystem (including Optimus).

We continue to believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 as full scale volume production begins of the autonomous and robotics roadmap.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and our $600 price target.”

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