Cantor Keeps Rivian’s Neutral Rating

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated on November 5, 2025, a $15 price target on Rivian, with a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock.

“Financial Metrics: Top-Line Beat

RIVN reported 3Q25 revenue of $1,558M, above Visible Alpha consensus of ~$1,487M (and vs. $1,158M in 3Q24), driven by 13,201 vehicle deliveries (and 10,720 vehicles produced).

Total Automotive revenue contributed $1,142M (vs. 776M in 3Q24), and total Software revenue was $416M (vs. $96M in 3Q24).

RIVN reported $298M in revenue from AMZN (OW, covered by D. Mathivanan), which represented ~19% of total sales.

Recall that historically, AMZN revenue has accounted for ~20% of total revenue.

Additionally, management also disclosed that ~$214M in revenue within Software and Services came from the Volkswagen (VOW-DE; NC) joint venture, which we see as encouraging.

RIVN reported a 3Q25 Adj. EBITDA loss of ($602M), below our estimate/Consensus of ($576.2M)/($569M), (and vs. a loss of ($757M) in 3Q24).

RIVN reported a 3Q25 positive gross profit of $24M, and Gross Margin of 1.5%, above our estimate/consensus of (3%)/(3%), respectively.

Bottom Line

Rivian reported a 3Q25 Net loss of $(1,173M), below our estimate/consensus of ($897.3M)/($991.4M), and vs. $(1,100M) in 3Q24.

Finally, the company reported a 3Q25 adj. EPS of ($0.65), above Visible Alphaconsensus of $0.73 (and vs. ($0.99) in 3Q24).

Separately, Rivian’s Adventure (charging) Network now has >850 chargers across 131 sites that are active in 38 states.

Liquidity Update

RIVN reported ~$7.1B in cash, equivalents, and ST investments for 3Q25 (vs. ~$7.5B in 2Q25).

Net cash generated from operating activities in 3Q25 was ~$26M, vs. ($876M) in 3Q24. Capex in 3Q25 was $447M (vs. $277M in 3Q24).

RIVN’s total liquidity is ~$7,686M as of 3Q25 (vs. ~$8.5B in 2Q25), including the capacity under the company’s asset-based revolving credit facility.

Latest on the Joint Venture with Volkswagen, and Loan from the DOE

RIVN’s total deal size of its joint venture with Volkswagen previously increased to $5.8B (from $5B), and in 3Q25, RIVN disclosed it recognized ~$214M of revenue within Software and Services from its Volkswagen JV.

Recall, the $5.8B will be split into six components.

Rivian received $1B equity investment from VOW on June 30th, and management expects to receive $1B of equity in 2026 from VOW, a $1B loan in October 2026, and ~$460M of equity (expected either on Jan 2028 or on first production of a joint vehicle).

Separately, recall that RIVN previously closed its loan agreement with the U.S.

Department of Energy’s (DOE) Loan Programs Office (LPO) for up to $6.6B (includes $6B of principal and ~$600M of capitalized interest) for the build-out of the company’s newer Georgia facility.

This loan is a project-based finance loan (tied to vertical construction of its site in Georgia), and thus we expect the majority of withdrawals to take place in 2026/2027.

Our Thoughts – Cantor’s Take

We continue to believe that RIVN benefits from a commercial partnership with Amazon, a strategic joint venture with Volkswagen, and a differentiated product offering (R1, EV charging, EDVs, & R2).

We view Rivian’s R2 line (1H26) as a material catalyst, and one that should result in higher customer demand, driven by the more competitive price point.

However, we remain discouraged in the near-term by the company’s FY25 delivery guidance of 41,500 – 43,500 vehicles (which is lower than FY24 deliveries), and remain conservative in our initial R2 delivery ramp-up assumptions.

Overall, we remain Neutral in the near term, driven by the recent removal of the $7,500 EV Tax Credit, lower production & delivery expectations, worsening macro conditions, tariff uncertainty, and uncertainty regarding the company’s autonomy and charging segments (which have yet to be quantified by management, though we expect to receive initial details at the AI and autonomy day on 12/11).

Valuation

We Reiterate our Neutral Rating and our 12-Month $15 PT on RIVN.

In our model, we are decreasing our FY25 vehicles produced/ vehicle deliveries to 42,000/42,500 (from prior 50,000/45,500), respectively, to reflect company guidance.

This results in a reduction to our FY25 estimate to $5,389M (from ~$5,718M previously). We arrive at our $15 PT via a bottom-up, 10-year DCF.

Key risks include

• the implementation of new tariffs,
• continued supply-chain disruptions,
• manufacturing constraints,
• a highly competitive market,
• and slower customer adoption.

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.