Cantor Fitzgerald Lowers Lucid’s Price Target to $21

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard has lowered on November 6, 2025, its price target on Lucid Motors from $26 to $21, while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock.

“Midsize Platform On-Track for 2H26 – Material Catalyst

On 11/5, management reaffirmed that the Midsize Platform is on track for SOP in late-2026.

LCID is targeting to offer its midsize vehicle for a starting price <$50,000, and it plans to offer three alternate “top-hats” for this vehicle.

We continue to believe the Midsize will allow Lucid to scale up production at higher volumes and improve gross margins.

We expect for the first introduced vehicle to be an SUV model.

Robotaxi Commercialization (with UBER) Initial Rollout in San Francisco

 Recall that on 7/17, LCID partnered with Uber (UBER, OW, covered by D.

Mathivanan) and Nuro (private) to launch a next-generation autonomous robotaxi program exclusively via the Uber platform.

More recently, on 10/29, Uber disclosed that it had chosen San Francisco as its initial launch city for this robotaxi collaboration.

The companies plan to deploy >20,000 Lucid Gravity electric SUVs equipped with Nuro’s Level 4 self-driving system (called “Lucid Gravity Plus” vehicles) over six years across global markets, beginning in late 2026.

Per the partnership, Uber will invest ~$300M into both Lucid and Nuro, with the vehicles to be owned and operated by Uber or its fleet partners.

FY25 Production Guidance Revised

In 3Q25, LCID revised down its FY25 vehicle production guidance to ~18,000 (from prior 18,000-20,000).

Recall that in FY24, Lucid delivered 10,241 vehicles and produced 9,029 vehicles.

Separately, LCID is now guiding FY25 Capex of ~$1B-$1.2B (from prior $1.1B-$1.2B).

Key Financial Metrics: Top Line Miss

LCID reported 3Q25 revenue of ~$336.6M, below our estimates/Visible Alpha consensus of ~$414M/$370M, (and above ~$200.0M in 3Q24), driven by 4,078 vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, LCID reported an adj.

EBITDA loss of ~$(718M), below our estimate/consensus of ($599M)/($595M) and below ~($613M) in 3Q24.

Gross Margins Miss

LCID reported a 3Q25 GAAP negative gross margin of ~(99%), below consensus estimate of (70%) but above (~106%) in 3Q24.

Bottom Line Miss

LCID reported a 3Q25 Net loss of $(978.4M), below our estimate/consensus of ($749.3M)/($726.5M) and vs.

($992.5M) in 3Q24.

Additionally, LCID reported a 3Q25 Non-GAAP diluted net loss per share of ($2.65), below our estimate/consensus of ($2.26)/($2.29) and vs.

($2.90) in 3Q24.

Finally, Lucid now has 60 studios and service centers, including 44 Studios and service centers in North America, 12 in Europe, and 4 in the Middle East.

Total Liquidity is ~$5.5B (as of 3Q25) – Sufficient to fund the business “Into 1H27”

The company reported ~$3B in cash, cash equivalents, and investments as of 3Q25 (vs. $3.63B as of 2Q25).

Net cash used for operating activities in 3Q25 was ($756.7M) vs. ($462.8M) in 3Q24.

LCID reported 3Q25 capex of ~$198.8M (vs. $159.7M in 3Q24).

As of Q3 LCID has total liquidity of ~$5.5B (vs. $4.86B on 2Q25), which includes a ~$274M Asset-Backed Revolving Credit facility (subject to borrowing base availability), a ~$193M Gulf International Bank (GIB) facility, and a $750M unsecured delayed draw term loan facility (DDTL).

Notably, on its Q3 earnings call, management disclosed that subsequent to quarter end, the company and the PIF have agreed to increase the DDTL to ~$2.0B (from $750M previously).

As such, management now expects its current liquidity to be sufficient to fund the business “into 1H27,”, vs. prior guidance of 1H26.

Management also disclosed that it continues to pursue capital raising opportunities ahead of the FY26 Convert maturing.

Pursuing L4 Autonomy with NVIDIA Partnership

On 10/28, LCID announced its collaboration with NVIDIA (NVDA, OW, covered by C.J.

Muse) to integrate its midsize vehicle with NVIDIA’s Drive AV platform.

With this partnership, LCID expects to deliver the first privately owned passenger vehicle with Level 4 autonomous driving capability and to utilize NVIDIAs industrial AI platform and Omniverse to gain manufacturing efficiency.

Additionally, the companies will jointly develop a consumer vehicle with eyes-off and hands-off autonomy capabilities.

What’s Next – Upcoming Potential Catalysts

• Lucid Gravity deliveries to begin in Europe – 2026E
• Analyst/Investor Day – We expect 1Q26E
• Midsize vehicle launch – We expect 4Q26E – 1H27E
• Uber/Nuro Robotaxi launch – 2H26E
• Completion of AMP-2 Facility in Saudi – 4Q26E/1H27E
• Potential New Licensing/Autonomy partnerships – We expect 4Q25-1H27E.

Our Thoughts – Cantor’s Take

We continue to believe that Lucid vehicles are able to provide higher battery efficiency, longer battery range, better performance, more space, and faster charging (relative to other EVs).

Additionally, we also continue to believe the launch of the midsize platform (2H26E) will be a material catalyst that should help the company scale and improve margins further.

We are also encouraged by the company’s plan to enter the robotaxi market in late 2026 via Uber, and we expect LCID to continue to pursue additional partnerships.

However, we are discouraged in the near-term, after the company’s recently revised FY25 production guidance to ~18,000 vehicles, and for missing on both top- and bottom line reporting (vs. consensus expectations).

Overall, we remain neutral due to lower guidance, persistent high negative gross margin, additional capital needs (management still needs to address FY26 convert maturing), supply constraints, a worsening macro environment, and tariff uncertainty.

Valuation

We are reiterating our Neutral Rating and decreasing our PT to $21 (from prior $26).

In our model, we are lowering our FY25/FY26 vehicle deliveries estimate to 15,390/29,160, from prior 16,650/34,160, respectively, as we want to remain conservative in initial ramp up.

We also decrease our FY25/FY26 gross margin to ~(94%)/~(18%), from prior ~(66%)/~(13%).

We are decreasing our FY25 capex to 1,025M (from prior 1,150M).

We arrive at our $21 PT via a bottom-up 10-year DCF.

We assume an 11% WACC and a terminal value with a 2% long-term growth rate.

Key risks include

• High negative gross margins,
• additional capital needs,
• tariffs,
• continued supply-chain disruptions,
• manufacturing constraints,
• highly competitive market,
• and slower-than-expected customer adoption.”

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