Cantor Fitzgerald Reiterates Neutral Rating on Lucid, $8 Price Target

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated a Neutral rating and $8 price target on Lucid Group Inc.

(NASDAQ: LCID).

“Lucid (LCID, N) Reports Tomorrow (8/4) – What to Expect?

LCID previously announced that in Q2 it delivered 3,953 vehicles, below Visible Alpha consensus of 4,618 (though above 3,309 in 2Q25), and produced 4,774 vehicles, in line with our estimate of 4,689 (and above 3,863 in 2Q25).

For the 2Q26 print, Visible Alpha consensus is expecting revenue of ~$404.2M (vs. our estimate of ~$346.7M), GAAP Gross Margin of (59.5%) (vs. our estimate of ~(75%)), Adj.

EBITDA of ~($690.8M) (vs. our estimate of ~($703.1M)), Net Loss of ~($889.2M) (vs. our estimate of ~($886.3M), Non-GAAP Diluted Net Loss Per Share of ($2.25) vs. our estimate of ($1.74), and FCF of ~($854M) (vs. our estimate of ~($981M)).

LCID was previously guiding FY26 vehicle production of 25,000-27,000 and FY26 Capex of $1.2B-$1.4B, though new management has since then pulled guidance, and we look for an updated production target on the Q2 call.

In our estimates, we currently model 22,295 vehicles delivered (led by Gravity).

Recall that the company previously announced that Silvio Napoli (who recently served as Chairman and CEO of Schindler Group) will become the company’s new CEO, and also recently announced that Alexander De Bock (most recently served as CFO of TI Automotive) will become Lucid’s new CFO.

On the Q2 call, we expect to hear new management’s strategy towards accelerating Lucid’s path to profitability, and its restructuring plans.

Recall that in a recent company filing, Lucid denied claims that it was going private or filing for Chapter 11, stating that such claims were “completely false,” and added that it has “sufficient liquidity to carry its operations well into next year.” Lucid reported total liquidity of ~$3.2B as of Q1, and following a recent capital raise, the company’s total liquidity on a pro forma basis stands at ~$4.7B.

Most recently in a filing last week, the company disclosed that Saudi Prince Alwaleed has taken a ~5% ownership stake, which sent shares up ~22% on the day (vs.

S&P 500 roughly flat), and more importantly reaffirms the PIF’s commitment to the company, in our view.

PIF is LCID’s largest holder with a ~45% stake (according to Bloomberg), and recall that LCID has an agreement with the government of Saudi Arabia to deliver 50,000 vehicles (plus an option for an additional 50,000).

In our opinion, we continue to view the launch of Midsize (targeting an ASP of <$50K, and currently on-track for 2H26) as the most material catalyst, and we expect Midsize to represent most of these deliveries to Saudi (followed by Gravity).

On the call, we look for: an updated timeline on the Midsize SOP, Midsize delivery expectations, status update of the second manufacturing facility (being built in Saudi Arabia), and the new management’s strategy roadmap.

LCID will report Q2 earnings on 8/4 and host its earnings call at 5:30 PM ET.

Upcoming Potentially Material Catalysts.

We expect several potential material catalysts over the next twelve months, including: launch of robotaxi via Uber/Nuro (4Q26E), hands-free highway and city driving autonomy (2H26E), the completion of AMP-2 facility in Saudi Arabia (4Q26E-1H27E), Midsize launch (end of 2026E/Early 2027), and launch of DreamDrive Pro autonomy subscription (1H27).

Liquidity Refresher: Funded “Well into Next Year.” As of Q1, LCID had total liquidity of ~$3.2B (vs. ~$4.6B on 4Q25), which includes a ~$2.0B unsecured delayed draw term loan facility (DDTL), a ~$468M Asset-Backed Revolving Credit facility (subject to borrowing base availability), and a ~$2M Gulf International Bank (GIB) facility.

Following Q1, LCID announced a capital raise of $1.05B, which consists of a $550M investment in its convertible preferred stock by Ayar Third Investment Company (affiliate of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund), an additional $200M investment by Uber (OW), and a $300M registered public offering of common stock.

Separately, on 7/6, LCID announced it drew $800M on its DDTL facility.

Including the recent capital raise, Lucid’s total liquidity on a pro forma basis stands at ~$4.7B, which management affirmed is sufficient to fund the company “well into next year.”

Midsize Platform – Targeting Material Ramp-up in 2027. Lucid’s Midsize platform consists of three different models: Cosmos, Earth, and a third yet to be disclosed.

The company is targeting to offer its midsize vehicle for a starting price <$50,000, which we find encouraging.

Additionally (and perhaps an underappreciated aspect of Midsize’s preview, yet material, in our view), LCID is targeting its Midsize platform to result in up to 70% lower unit cost, and we expect LCID’s Midsize to have approximately between 2/3 – 1/2 fewer components than its Gravity SUV vehicles.

Furthermore, management has also previously disclosed that Cosmo and Earth will share ~95% of their components, which we view as encouraging.

By 2028, LCID is targeting Midsize to comprise ~75% of total deliveries. In Q2, we expect an updated timeline on the Midsize SOP and delivery expectations.

Robotaxis On-Track for Late 2026.

Lucid and Uber (UBER, OW) previously expanded their robotaxi partnership to >35,000 vehicles (starting with Gravity), vs. prior ~20,000, and the companies remain on track for commercial robotaxi launch in late 2026.

LCID is planning to add at least 25,000 “Midsize Plus” vehicles for Uber’s planned global autonomous service, targeting SOP in 2H28E, and we look for additional robotaxi commentary on the Q2 call.

Management Changes: A New CEO and CFO. Lucid previously announced that Silvio Napoli (recently served as Chairman and CEO of Schindler Group) will become the company’s new CEO.

On the Q2 call, we expect to hear Napoli’s strategy for accelerating Lucid’s path to profitability, and management’s new restructuring plans.

Additionally, Lucid also recently announced that Alexander De Bock will become Lucid’s new CFO. De Bock most recently served as CFO of TI Automotive.

Taoufiq Boussaid, who was serving as CFO, will remain on board during 2Q results, before stepping down following the transition.

Valuation. Our Neutral rating and $8 PT are unchanged, pending a full model update.

In our model, we update our Q2 vehicle delivery estimate to reflect the company’s pre-announcement, which results in a decrease to our 2Q26 revenue estimate to ~$346.7M (from prior ~$454.3M).

We also lower our FY26 deliveries to 22,295 units (from prior 23,185 units), resulting in revenue of $1,956.4M (from prior $2,035.8M), as we want to remain conservative.

We arrive at our $8 PT via a bottom-up 10-year DCF. We assume an 11% WACC and a terminal value with a 2% long-term growth rate.

Key risks include: High negative gross margins, additional capital needs, tariffs, continued supply-chain disruptions, manufacturing constraints, a highly competitive market, and slower-than-expected customer adoption.”

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