Cantor Fitzgerald Lowers Lucid’s Price Target to $8

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard lowered the price target on Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID) to $8.00 (from $14.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

LCID Takeaways: Our Thoughts — Cantor’s Take. In Q1, LCID reported revenue of $282.5M, in-line with our estimate, driven by 3,093 vehicle deliveries (and 5,500 vehicles produced).

For this year, we expect Gravity to lead sales in our FY26 delivery estimate of 23,185 vehicles delivered.

LCID was previously guiding FY26 vehicle production of 25,000-27,000 and FY26 Capex of $1.2B-$1.4B, though on the call, management suspended guidance and disclosed that it expects to provide an update in Q2.

We view this as mildly disappointing, and we now expect the production guidance to likely get revised next quarter.

Separately, LCID’s upcoming Midsize platform is targeted for material ramp-up through 2027, and we continue to view this as the most material catalyst for the company.

LCID’s Midsize will consist of three different models: Cosmos, Earth, and a third yet to be disclosed.

Additionally (and perhaps an under-appreciated aspect of Midsize’s preview, yet material in our view), is that we expect LCID’s Midsize to have approximately between 2/3 – 1/2 fewer components than Gravity.

As such, we view Midsize as a way for LCID to offer a more competitively priced vehicle with a better margin profile, which can accelerate the company’s path towards profitability.

Recall as well that LCID has an agreement with the government of Saudi Arabia for up to 50,000 vehicles (plus an option for an additional 50,000), and we expect Midsize to represent most of these deliveries.

We also remain encouraged by the company’s plan to enter the robotaxi market (management reaffirmed 4Q26) via its partnership with Uber.

More importantly, LCID recently expanded its Uber robotaxi partnership to >35,000 vehicles (from prior ~20,000).

LCID’s partnership with Uber will span over six years, starting in 2H26 with a planned Bay Area commercial launch.

Additionally, LCID also announced that Uber has committed to an additional $200M investment (raising the total to $500M to date).

Lastly, we expect several potential material catalysts over the next twelve months, including: launch of robotaxi via Uber/Nuro (4Q26E), hands-free highway and city driving autonomy (2H26E), the completion of the AMP-2 facility in Saudi Arabia (4Q26E), Midsize launch (end of 2026E), and launch of DreamDrive Pro autonomy subscription (1H27).

Lastly, LCID now has total liquidity of ~$3.2B as of Q1 (pro forma liquidity of ~$4.7B), which management expects is sufficient to fund the business till 2H27.

Overall, we remain Neutral, and we lower our PT to $8 due to guidance suspension, lower production expectations, persistent high negative gross margin, additional capital needs, worsening macro, increased autonomy competition, and tariff uncertainty.

2026 Production Guidance Suspended, To Be Updated in Q2 Under New CEO. On 4/14, Lucid announced that Silvio Napoli will become CEO and join the board.

Napoli recently served as Chairman and CEO of Schindler Group. This was Napoli’s first official call as LCID’s CEO.

Additionally, LCID previously was guiding FY26 vehicle production of 25,000-27,000 vehicles and FY26 Capex of $1.2B-$1.4B, though on the call, management disclosed that it now expects to provide updated guidance in Q2.

We view this as mildly disappointing, as we now expect the production guidance to likely get revised next quarter.

Robotaxis On-Track for Late 2026. On 4/14, Uber and Lucid expanded their robotaxi partnership from the previously announced ~20,000 vehicles to at least 35,000 vehicles (starting with Gravity).

On its Q1 call, LCID disclosed it is on track for commercial robotaxi launch in late 2026, in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The robotaxis will later add at least 25,000 “Midsize Plus” vehicles for Uber’s planned global autonomous service, with LCID targeting SOP in 2H28E.

Separately, at its Investor Day, LCID revealed the initial design for its new two-seat robotaxi concept called “lunar.” This robotaxi features no steering wheel or pedals, and management is targeting 40% lower operating cost, though no commercialization timeline has been disclosed.

Midsize Platform — Targeting Material Ramp-up in 2027. At Lucid’s Investor Day, management previewed its Midsize platform for the first time, which consists of three different models: Cosmos, Earth, and a third yet to be disclosed.

More importantly, LCID is targeting to offer its midsize vehicle for a starting price <$50,000.

Additionally (and perhaps an under-appreciated aspect of Midsize’s preview, yet material in our view), LCID is targeting its Midsize platform to result in up to 70% lower unit cost, and we expect LCID’s Midsize to have approximately between 2/3 – 1/2 fewer components than its Gravity SUV vehicles.

Furthermore, while the Midsize platform will offer three different vehicles to consumers, management disclosed that Cosmo and Earth will share ~95% of their components, which we view as encouraging.

By 2028, LCID is targeting Midsize to comprise ~75% of total deliveries. In Q2, we expect an updated timeline on the Midsize SOP.

A Catalyst-Heavy Upcoming Schedule. We expect several potential material catalysts over the next twelve months, including: launch of robotaxi via Uber/Nuro (4Q26E), hands-free highway and city driving autonomy (2H26E), the completion of AMP-2 facility in Saudi Arabia (4Q26E-1H27E), Midsize launch (end of 2026E/Early 2027), and launch of DreamDrive Pro autonomy subscription (1H27).

Liquidity Update: Funded into 2H27. LCID reported ~$0.7B in cash, cash equivalents, and investments as of 1Q26 (vs. ~$2.1B as of 4Q25).

As of Q1, LCID has total liquidity of ~$3.2B (vs. ~$4.6B on 4Q25), which includes a ~$2.0B unsecured delayed draw term loan facility (DDTL), a ~$468M Asset-Backed Revolving Credit facility (subject to borrowing base availability), and a ~$2M Gulf International Bank (GIB) facility.

Additional Capital Raised via PIF, Uber, and a Public Offering. LCID recently announced that Ayar Third Investment Company, an affiliate of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, will invest $550M in its convertible preferred stock.

Additionally, Uber also announced that it will invest an additional $200M via a private placement in LCID’s common stock, bringing its total investment in Lucid to $500M.

Separately, Lucid also announced a $300M registered public offering of common stock, which, together with Ayar and Uber’s additional investments, brings the raise to ~$1.05B.

Including the recent capital raise, Lucid’s total liquidity on a pro forma basis stands at ~$4.7B.

Key Financials — Top Line In-Line: LCID reported 1Q26 revenue of $282.5M, in-line with company guidance of $280M-$284M, and in-line with our estimate of $281.7M (and above ~$235M in 1Q25), driven by 3,093 vehicle deliveries in the quarter (and 5,500 vehicles produced).

Additionally, LCID reported a 1Q26 adj. EBITDA loss of ~$(780.6M), vs. our estimate/consensus of ~($772M)/~($641M), (and vs. ~($563M) in 1Q25).

Gross Margins: LCID reported a 1Q26 GAAP gross margin of ~(110%), vs. our estimate of ~(121%), (and vs. ~(97%) in 1Q25).

Bottom Line: LCID reported a 1Q26 Net loss of ($1,028M), vs. our estimate/consensus of ($973.8M)/($817.3M), (and vs. ($366.2M) in 1Q25).

Additionally, LCID reported a 1Q26 Non-GAAP diluted net loss per share of ($2.82), below our estimate/consensus of ($2.71)/($2.16), (and vs. ($0.20) in 1Q25).

LCID also reported 1Q26 capex of ~$253M, vs. our estimate/consensus of $326M/$294M and 1Q26 FCF of ($1,439M), vs. our estimate of ($1,423M).

Investor Day Updated Financial Targets. At Lucid’s Investor Day, the company provided its mid-term (2027-2028) and longer-term (late-decade) financial targets.

Over the mid-term, Lucid expects to deliver ~100K vehicles, high-single-digit revenues ($B), and to transition to positive gross margins (with management targeting R&D and SG&A around ~10% of revenue).

Over the long term, Lucid is targeting revenues of “high-teens billions,” including >$1B from non-new vehicle revenue streams, >$2B from robotaxis and B2B partnerships, and >$5B from EMEA and rest-of-world markets, and to generate positive FCF.

Valuation. We reiterate our Neutral rating, and we lower our PT to $8 (from prior $14) on LCID, due to lower production expectations, a more conservative deliveries ramp up, persistent high negative gross margin, additional capital needs, worsening macro, increased autonomy competition, tariffs, and new management uncertainty.

In our model, we lower our FY26 blended ASP to $87.8K (from prior $89.1K), resulting in lower FY26 revenues of $2,035.8M (from prior $2,065.9M).

We also lower our FY26/FY27 gross margins to (57%)/1%, (from prior (45%)/2%). We arrive at our $8 PT via a bottom-up 10-year DCF.

We assume an 11% WACC and a terminal value with a 2% long-term growth rate.

Key risks include: High negative gross margins, additional capital needs, tariffs, continued supply-chain disruptions, manufacturing constraints, highly competitive market, and slower-than-expected customer adoption.

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