Mizuho Tesla · TSLA

Mizuho Trims Tesla’s Price Target to $475

1 min read Reproduced verbatim
Rating
Outperform
Unchanged
Target
$475
from $485 (−2%)
Outcome
Reached
on December 15, 2025
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What the analyst said

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered on November 25, 2025, the price target on Tesla to $475 (from $485) while maintaining an ‘Outperform’ rating.

“We are Lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E.

We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.

We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M).

We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength.”

Disclaimer
The price target and rating on this page are the opinion of the issuing research firm and its analyst, not of Price Target. This page is published for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.

Where the price stands

TSLA trades at $358. The 17 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $24.86 to $500, with a median of $442. This $475 target is 7% above the median.

Since the note TSLA has moved −14% (from $418). 12-month window: day 347 of 365, closes on November 25, 2026.

Track record

This call✓ Target reached on December 15, 2025, 20 days after the note.

Firm track recordMizuho: 88% of its 69 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#2 of 26 firms); on Tesla, 7 of 8. Accuracy ranking →

Mizuho on Tesla

Mizuho price targets on Tesla

8 calls from May 16, 2025 to April 23, 2026. The target went from $390 to $480 (+23%). The rating stayed Buy.

Mizuho targetTSLA share price
  1. April 23, 2026Target cut from $530 (−9%)Buy$480
  2. December 16, 2025Target raised from $475 (+12%)Buy$530
  3. November 25, 2025 This noteTarget cut from $485 (−2%)Buy$475
  4. October 23, 2025Target raised from $450 (+8%)Buy$485
  5. September 22, 2025Target raised from $375 (+20%)Buy$450
  6. July 24, 2025Kept the $375 targetBuy$375
  7. July 7, 2025Target cut from $390 (−4%)Buy$375
  8. May 16, 2025Earliest call shownBuy$390
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Other analysts on Tesla

CantorBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 26 $485maintained BarclaysBuy Upgraded, raised price target +22% Oct 26 $450from $370 StoneXBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 22 $475maintained BNP ParibasHold Upgraded Oct 22 Morgan StanleyHold Raised price target +2%, kept rating Oct 22 $410from $400
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Price Target is an archive of Wall Street analyst research, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets are the opinions of the issuing firms, not of Price Target. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.