Morgan Stanley Tesla · TSLA

Morgan Stanley Downgrades Tesla’s Rating to Equalweight

1 min read Reproduced verbatim
Rating
Equalweight
Downgraded
Target
$425
from $410 (+4%)
Outcome
Reached
on January 20, 2026
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What the analyst said

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco downgraded Tesla from Overweight to Equalweight with a price target of $425 (from $410).

“Assuming coverage of TSLA at Equal-weight, with a $425 price target, implying 6% downside.

Tesla is a clear global leader in electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real world AI and thus deserving of a premium valuation.

However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation.

While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels, driving our EW rating.

We’ve conducted a full re-calibration of our Tesla model, adding in Humanoid valuation supported by our Morgan Stanley Global Humanoid team’s TAM work, expanding our robotaxi model with a proprietary market analyses, broadening our Network Services (including FSD) model, moderating our Auto and Energy forecasts, and a building an illustrative pay package dilution analysis.

Disclaimer
The price target and rating on this page are the opinion of the issuing research firm and its analyst, not of Price Target. This page is published for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.

Where the price stands

TSLA trades at $358. The 17 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $24.86 to $500, with a median of $442. This $425 target is 4% below the median.

Since the note TSLA has moved −21% (from $455). 12-month window: day 334 of 365, closes on December 8, 2026.

Track record

This call✓ Target reached on January 20, 2026, 43 days after the note.

Firm track recordMorgan Stanley: 82% of its 50 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#8 of 26 firms); on Tesla, 4 of 5. Accuracy ranking →

Morgan Stanley on Tesla

Morgan Stanley price targets on Tesla

8 calls from June 6, 2025 to January 22, 2026. The target went from $410 to $425 (+4%). The rating moved from Buy to Hold.

Morgan Stanley targetTSLA share price
  1. January 22, 2026Kept the $425 targetHold$425
  2. January 2, 2026Kept the $425 targetHold$425
  3. December 8, 2025 This noteDowngraded to Hold, target cut from $800 (−47%)Hold$425
  4. October 28, 2025Target raised from $410 (+95%)Buy$800
  5. October 2, 2025Kept the $410 targetBuy$410
  6. September 5, 2025Kept the $410 targetBuy$410
  7. August 7, 2025Kept the $410 targetBuy$410
  8. June 6, 2025Earliest call shownBuy$410
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Other analysts on Tesla

CantorBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 26 $485maintained BarclaysBuy Upgraded, raised price target +22% Oct 26 $450from $370 StoneXBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 22 $475maintained BNP ParibasHold Upgraded Oct 22 JP MorganHold Raised price target +4%, kept rating Oct 22 $430from $415
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Price Target is an archive of Wall Street analyst research, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets are the opinions of the issuing firms, not of Price Target. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.