Wells Fargo Reiterates Overweight on NVIDIA, $265 Price Target

Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating and $265 price target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).

“News: Today, post close, the Trump Admin (via Truth Social) has disclosed that it has informed China’s President Xi that it will allow NVDA to ship its H200 GPUs to China; thawing of the strict GPU export controls the Trump Admin has maintained.

Reminder: the export ban of NVDA’s H20 chip was instated in April; Blackwell GPUs will not be part of deal.

As a reminder, in October there were reports the Trump admin would allow the sale of the B30A into China.

Our Initial Thought: We think investors could think about a $25-$30B/annum+ revenue and +$0.60-$0.70/sh EPS impact.

As a reminder, NVDA reported H20 export control revenue impacts at ~$4.6B (~12%) and ~$4.0B (~10%) in F1Q26 (Apr ’25) and F2Q26 (Jul ’25), respectively (H20 export ban occurred in mid-April).

NVDA has previously noted that China accounted for 20-25% of total Data Center revenue. Key Questions: We have not yet spoken with NVDA; key questions include: 1.

How do we think about the net-revenue impact of China ship resumption – i.e., incremental capacity allocation; note that Hopper uses CoWoS-S vs. Blackwell using CoWoS-L. 2.

Sales will be approved to Chinese customers – what is the process? 3. Does NVDA have any writtendown H20 inventory that can be used for H200 – re: ~$4.5B write-down taken in F1Q26? 4.

Margin profile / pricing offset to 25% of revenue paid to US Gov’t? Current Export Controls: The H200 performance stats significantly exceed current export limit thresholds.

The 10/23 controls set Total Processing Performance / Performance density limits to 4,800 TPP or Performance Density (TPP/die size) of 5.92.

The H200 for reference delivers TPP of 15,831 for comparison, or performance density of 19.4x compared to the B200 at 36,000/21.9x.

AMD (and Intel) Implications: The Trump Administration export control lift includes AMD and Intel.

As a reminder, AMD’s MI308X was granted export licenses in 3Q25 w/ roughly H20 equivalent performance.

AMD previously rptd that its 2Q25 revenue guide reflected a ~$700M impact from the China MI308X ban, guiding a ~$1.5B impact for CY25 w/ majority to be recognized in 3Q25.

We expect AMD to receive export licenses for its MI300X and/or MI325X (MI325X at 2,615 FP8 TFLOPs or 20,919 TPP).”

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