UBS Raises Micron Price Target to $295

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri raised the price target on Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) to $295 (from $275) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“We previewed FQ1:26 (Nov) earlier this week (reporting 12/17); however, in conjunction with our latest round of industry checks, we flag an even stronger pricing environment in both core DRAM and NAND than we had previously assumed.

We now forecast C4Q25 industry contract pricing for DDR to be up ~35% Q/Q (vs. +21% prior) and for NAND up ~20% Q/Q (vs. +15% prior).

Similarly, we see C1Q26 industry contract pricing for DDR to be up another ~30% Q/Q (vs. +15% prior) and for NAND +20% Q/Q (vs. +10% prior).

Importantly, our checks suggest that it is ultimately possible that customers might have to accept double-digit sequential ASP increases through C2026 as our model now reflects meaningful undersupply in DRAM and NAND to last up until C1Q27/C4Q26, respectively.

As a result, customers are now securing volumes and contract pricing earlier in the quarter than they have in the past.

For hyperscalers, many have already negotiated pre-purchase orders (PPOs) for DDR, which are fixed volume commitments (not pricing) extending in some cases through calendar year 2028.

For HBM, we slightly adjust our industry demand forecasts of ~27.7B Gb in CY26 (vs.

28.0B Gb prior) but see upside to our numbers primarily driven by NVDA and GOOGL.

Overall, we expect these dynamics to intensify into CY26 until new shell capacity comes online (likely not until late in the year, at best), supporting greater durability/stability of the cycle and positioning MU to drive margins higher.

Against this backdrop of tightening supply, we walk EPS estimates higher yet again and see EPS of ~$38 out in C2027E, justifying a PT of $295 (up from $275) and we remain Buy rated.”

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