William Blair Reaffirms ‘Market Perform’ Rating on Tesla
William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer reiterated on January 2, 2026, a ‘Market Perform’ rating on Tesla.
“Tax Credit Hangover
In the fourth quarter, Tesla delivered 418,277 vehicles, a 16% drop from last quarter’s record, but roughly in line with consensus and above our estimate.
In our opinion, this hangover from the tax credit sunset was expected and will have little influence on the stock, which is valued almost entirely on the transformation to real-world AI with robotaxi and Optimus.
Breakout Year for Megapack in 2026
The company deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products, above consensus of 13.4 GWh but below our aggressive estimate of 15.6 GWh.
This represents a run-rate of about 57 GWh, still ramping up production to the current total capacity of 80 GWh, which we estimate will expand to 120 GWh by the end of next year.
We expect Tesla’s Megapack to have a breakout year in 2026 as a critical component to AI data centers.
Valuation and Risks
Shares trade at an enterprise value of 120x our 2026 EBITDA estimate, a significant premium to technology peers at 20-25x.
Risks include
- competition, particularly from Chinese EV and energy storage players;
- geopolitical risk, with large exposure to customers in China; and
- key-man risk with CEO Elon Musk.”
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