Wedbush Maintains Tesla’s $600 Price Target

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives reiterated on January 2, 2026, Tesla’s $600 price target and ‘Outperform’ rating.

“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the company navigates a more difficult demand environment following the end of the EV tax credit while Europe remains a headwind to its deliveries.

The company’s lower-priced Standard Model 3 and Standard Model Y, which was expected to be ~$25k and carried $37k and $40k price points, respectively, with TSLA looking to provide cheaper vehicle models to consumers.

Model 3/Y deliveries for the quarter came in at 406.6k deliveries, slightly above the Street’s 406.3k estimate, and other models saw 11.6k deliveries below the Street’s 18.3k delivery estimate with a total production of 434.6k vehicles with 1.63 million vehicles delivered in FY25 which sets the company up to succeed into 2026 and beyond from a delivery perspective.

Europe remains a continuous headwind for TSLA with the company still having difficulty obtaining regulatory approval for its FSD tech with sales in the region waiting to rebound once FSD gets the go-ahead from regulators which we believe will happen in 1H26.

Sales around smaller and emerging markets have started to see larger growth metrics than expectations which look to offset the declines in key regions like China and Europe as TSLA looks to tap into niche markets to drive further growth over time.

The company also saw strength from its energy business with 14.2 GWh of storage deployments, above the Street’s 13.4 GWh expectation with 46.7 GWh throughout 2025 above the 45.9 GWh expectation for 2025 with significant growth of its Megapack and Powerwall deployments as TSLA capitalizes on rising global demand for grid-scale energy storage.

This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026.

We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th.

AI Valuation the Focus Throughout 2026

We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap.

Our bull case scenario is $800 for Tesla over the next 12 to 18 months.

The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.

We also expect an easing of the federal framework for autonomous in early 2026 with more power going to the federal regulators with states having less authority on the autonomous rules framework likely under an Executive Order.

We estimate theAI and autonomous opportunity is worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla and we fully expect over the coming 3-6 months these key initiatives will now get fast tracked as the federal regulatory spiderweb that Musk & Co. have encountered over the past few years around FSD/autonomous clears significantly under Trump.

We believe Tesla will own ~70% of the global autonomous market over the next decade as no other company in the world can match the scale and scope of Tesla coupled with its broadening AI footprint.

We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and our $600 price target.”

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