Morgan Stanley Reiterates Tesla’s Equalweight Rating

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco reiterated on January 5, 2025, an ‘Equalweight’ rating and $425 price target on Tesla.

“Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in 4Q25 (-16% y/y), slightly missing sell-side consensus expectations (423k) by 1% but beat MSe (402k), and buy-side expectation of ~400- 410k.

ESS deployments also came in higher vs. expectations, hitting a record 14.2 GWh vs. 13.4 GWh cons.

We maintain our 1.597m vehicles unit sales (-2.5% Y/Y) and 64 GWh ESS deployment (+37%) estimate in 2026.

The catalyst path for TSLA remains concentrated around its robotaxi business in 1H26, although advancements in personal FSD (i.e. unsupervised) which in many ways is tied to a successful robotaxi roll-out, remain important drivers of future vehicle demand to support our double-digit volume growth expectations in 2027+.”

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