HSBC Keeps $131 Price Target on Tesla

HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall reiterated on January 4, 2026, a ‘Reduce’ rating and $131 price target on Tesla.

“Q4 deliveries of 418k units were below Visible Alpha consensus by 3.7%, our estimate by 5.2%, and company-collated consensus by 1.1%.

As a result, deliveries decreased nearly 16% y-o-y and q-o-q.

The end of EV credits in the US will have been a factor and it seems the more affordable Standard models failed to fill the gap.

The issues don’t appear to be purely US, as high-frequency data for Europe and China suggest volumes were weak in both these regions too.

Storage deployed came in strong at 14.2 GWh, or 4.7% above VA consensus and 7.5% above our estimate.

Production was 434k, or c16k above deliveries, which seems to suggest Tesla expects growth to pick up in Q1 2026, but it is hard to identify what might underpin that.

The global BEV market is becoming more regionalised, with US adoption stalling and competition increasing in both Europe and China.

Anti-involution measures in China and the extension of trade-in subsidies should be supportive for demand, but in Europe rising competition (both domestic and imported) is likely to see Tesla continue to lose share.”

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.