UBS Downgrades Rivian to Sell

UBS analyst Joseph Spak downgraded on January 14, 2026, Rivian from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Sell’ with a price target of $15 (from $13).

“We downgrade RIVN to Sell, $15 PT seeing a less favorable risk/reward.

RIVN stock has been prone to sentiment swings (often driving stock more than fundamentals) and the stock is +15% since Autonomy and AI Day on Dec. 11 (vs.

S&P500 +1%) as the market assigned more enthusiasm to their AI potential.

However, in our view, most of the AI related news is “out”.

The other point of enthusiasm is the launch of the R2 and while we like the vehicle, expectations may be too high; our 2026/27 sales forecast is 16/19% below consensus, and current stock prices in ’27 sales ~25% above UBSe.

We see ~20% downside in our base case ($15 PT) and a ~1.6x downside to upside negative skew.”

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