UBS Raises Tesla’s PT to $352, Maintains Sell Rating
UBS analyst Joseph Spak raised on January 29, 2026, the price target on Tesla to $352 (from $307) while maintaining a ‘Sell’ rating on the stock.
“Over the past few years, Tesla has shifted the narrative to becoming a physical AI company, and pivoting from an EV company.
However, they weren’t spending like an AI company, averaging ~$10bn in capex over the past 3 years.
That number is set to double to ~$20bn in 2026 (prior indication was >$11bn) which we view will put TSLA into cash burning mode (we forecast $6bn cash burn in 2026).
This is also before the $2bn investment in xAI.
This is a large inflection in spending to fund TSLA’s ambitious AI goals.
Thus, bulls are likely to view this as confirmatory of their thesis.
Our view remains that we believe Tesla has great tech capabilities with rapidly improving autonomous driving and humanoid robot tech.
But we’d also argue that the risk profile of an investment in TSLA has now increased.
Big dreams require big risk, and thetiming of when the payoff might be for some of these ventures becomes critically important.
On that front, Robotaxi geographic expansion should continue potentially reaching 12 major cities by year-end, but these won’t be fully scaled and won’t generate material cash.
On Optimus, we believe Musk has been cautioning on timing even saying on the call Optimus will have a ”stretched-out S-curve”.
And, TSLA is not done spending as Musk indicated a semi Terra-fab (which could cost an initial $30bn) and solar fab could be in the works.
Meanwhile, the profit driver of the company today, auto, had a strong margin quarter but is likely to have limited growth (ending production of the Model S/X the cherry on top for the EV to AI transition).
So we believe the auto value embedded in TSLA stock continues to come down, meaning that the value for the AI ventures goes even higher as the stock rises.
We believe TSLA is in a period where they need to grow into that valuation before further value appreciation occurs.”
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