CCantor LLucid · LCID
Cantor Fitzgerald Cuts Lucid’s Price Target to $14
Rating
Hold
Price target
$14
Previous
$21
Implied upside
+41%
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard has lowered on February 25, 2026, its price target on Lucid Motors from $21 to $14, while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock.
“LCID FY25 Takeaways: Our Thoughts – Cantor’s Take
In Q4, LCID reported a 4Q25 revenue beat of $522.7M, above consensus of ~$446M, (and a ~123% yoy increase from 4Q24), followed by a ~42% improvement in its FY25 Gross Margin.
In FY25, LCID produced 17,840 vehicles (revised from prior 18,378) and delivered 15,841. However, the company initiated FY26 production guidance of 25,000 – 27,000 vehicles, which we view as mildly disappointing, since it was below Visible Alpha consensus of ~34,000, and our preliminary estimate of ~39,000.
Overall, we remain Neutral, and we lower our PT to $14 (From $21), due to lower production, guidance, persistent high negative gross margin, additional capital needs, a worsening macro environment, and tariff uncertainty.
For this year, we expect Gravity to lead sales in our FY26 delivery estimate of 23,185 vehicles delivered, with Airs to remain relatively flat yoy.
Separately, LCID’s management reaffirmed that its upcoming Midsize platform remains on-track for SOP later this year (we expect 4Q26E).
LCID is targeting to offer its midsize vehicle for a starting price <$50,000, and it plans to offer three alternate “top-hats” for this vehicle.
We continue to believe the Midsize will allow Lucid to scale up production at higher volumes and improve gross margins, and we view the Midsize Launch as the most material catalyst for this year.
We also remain encouraged by the company’s plan to enter the robotaxi market (management is targeting 4Q26) via Uber, and we expect LCID to continue to pursue additional partnerships throughout this year.
Lastly, LCID’s total liquidity as of Q4 is $4.6B, which management expects is sufficient to fund the business till 1H27 (we model a capital raise in 3Q26).
Recall that we recently held direct conversations with the Public Investment Fund (PIF), Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, regarding their partnership with LCID.
The PIF is LCID’s largest shareholder, with a >50% stake (according to Bloomberg), and has invested >$9B in LCID since 2018.
Overall, we believe the PIF’s investment mandate to diversify the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) beyond oil, LCID’s upcoming manufacturing facility (being built in Saudi Arabia), and LCID’s contract with the government of Saudi Arabia (for up to 100,000 vehicles), are indicative of likely continued support.
Up next, we will be hosting LCID’s CEO & CFO at Cantor’s Annual Tech Conference in NY on 3/10 (investors can reach out to attend), and management will host its investor day on 3/12. 2026 Guidance Below Expectations.
In Q4, LCID initiated FY26 vehicle production guidance of 25,000 – 27,000 vehicles, below Visible Alpha consensus of 33,952 vehicles.
In FY25, the company produced 17,840 vehicles (revised from prior 18,378) and delivered 15,841 vehicles. Separately, LCID is also guiding FY26 Capex of $1.2B – $1.4B, in-line with Visible Alpha consensus of $1.3B.
Midsize Platform On-Track for 2H26 – Material Catalyst
Management reaffirmed that the Midsize Platform is on track for SOP in late-2026. LCID is targeting to offer its midsize vehicle for a starting price <$50,000, and it plans to offer three alternate “top-hats” for this vehicle.
We continue to believe the Midsize will allow Lucid to scale up production at higher volumes and improve GMs.
Liquidity Update: Funded Till 1H27.
LCID reported ~$2.1B in cash, cash equivalents, and investments as of 4Q25 (vs. ~$3B as of 3Q25).
As of Q4, LCID has total liquidity of ~$4.6B (vs. ~$5.5B on 3Q25), which includes a $2.0B unsecured delayed draw term loan facility (DDTL), a ~$397M Asset-Backed Revolving Credit facility (subject to borrowing base availability), and a ~$38M Gulf International Bank (GIB) facility.
Additionally, on 2/24, LCID filed to register up to 69.1M shares of Class A common stock for potential resale, fulfilling prior contractual obligations related to the PIF, (tied to Lucid’s 2025 convertible notes).
LCID stated that the registration “does not indicate an imminent sale, as the Uber-linked shares are locked up until March 2027 and the PIF-related shares are expected by the company to be delivered in 2030 and 2031.”
Robotaxi Partnership with Uber and Nuro – Targeting Initial Deployments Towards End of This year.
LCID is planning to deploy >20,000 Lucid Gravity electric SUVs as Robotaxis over the next six years, and as part of this partnership, Uber is investing ~$300M into both Lucid and Nuro.
These vehicles will be owned and operated by Uber, and management is targeting initial deployments in 4Q26.
Key Financials: Top Line Beat
LCID reported 4Q25 revenue of $522.7M, above Visible Alpha consensus of ~$446M, (and above ~$235M in 4Q24).
For FY25, LCID reported revenue of ~$1,354M, above consensus of $1,274M, (and above ~$808M in FY24).
Additionally, LCID reported a 4Q25 adj. EBITDA loss of ~$(875M), vs. Visible Alpha consensus of ($619M), (and vs. ~($577M) in 4Q24).
For FY25, LCID reported adj. EBITDA loss of ~($2,788M), below consensus of ($2,565M), (and vs. ($2,436M) in FY24).
Gross Margins In-Line
LCID reported a 4Q25 GAAP gross margin of ~(81%), in-line with our estimate of (80%), and below Visible Alpha consensus of (~68%), (though above (~89%) in 4Q24).
For FY25, LCID reported a GAAP gross margin of (~93%), in-line with our estimate of (~94%), and below Visible Alpha consensus of (~89%), (though an improvement from (~114%) in FY24).
Bottom Line
LCID reported a 4Q25 Net loss of ($814.0M), vs. consensus of ($822.8M), (and vs. ($397.2M) in 4Q24).
Additionally, LCID reported a 4Q25 Non-GAAP diluted net loss per share of ($3.08), below consensus of ($2.42), (and vs. ($2.19) in 4Q24).
LCID also reported a FY25 Net loss of ($2,698M), vs. consensus of ($2,960.6M), (and vs. ($2,713.9M) in FY24). Finally, LCID reported a FY25 Non-GAAP diluted net loss per share of ($10.09), vs. consensus of ($9.54) (and vs. ($10.44) in FY24).
Pursuing L4 Autonomy with NVIDIA Partnership
Last year, LCID announced its collaboration with NVIDIA (NVDA, OW) to integrate its midsize vehicle with NVIDIA’s Drive AV platform.
With this partnership, LCID expects to deliver the first privately owned passenger vehicle with Level 4 autonomous driving capability and to utilize NVIDIA’s industrial AI platform and Omniverse to gain manufacturing efficiency.
Additionally, the companies will jointly develop a consumer vehicle with eyes-off and hands-off autonomy capabilities.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts
- LCID Investor Day – March 12
- Midsize vehicle launch – We expect 4Q26E
- Completion of AMP-2 Facility in Saudi – 4Q26E/1H27E
- Uber/Nuro Robotaxi launch – We expect 4Q26/1H27E
Valuation
Our Neutral Rating is Unchanged, and we lower our PT to $14 (vs. prior $21), driven by lower production, guidance, persistent high negative gross margin, additional capital needs, a worsening macro environment, and tariff uncertainty.
In our model, we are lowering our FY26 vehicle production/delivery estimate to 26,050/23,185 (from prior 40,000/29,160), respectively, resulting in FY26 revenue of ~$2.1B (vs. prior ~$2.5B).
We also decrease our FY26 capex estimate to ~$1.3B (from prior ~$1.5B), reflecting the company’s outlook.
Lastly, we lower our FY26 gross margins to (30%) (from prior (18%), and we remove incremental revenues from prior Aston Martin announcement.
We arrive at our $14 PT via a bottom-up 10-year DCF. We assume an 11% WACC and a terminal value with a 2% long-term growth rate.
Key risks include:
- High negative gross margins,
- additional capital needs,
- tariffs,
- continued supply-chain disruptions,
- manufacturing constraints,
- highly competitive market, and
- slower-than-expected customer adoption.”
This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.
