JP Morgan Cuts Rivian’s Price Target to $9.00

JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman lowered the price target on Rivian to $9.00 (from $10.00) while maintaining a Underweight rating.

“We are catching up on Rivian Automotive (RIVN) earnings reported on February 12 by lowering our estimates and price target after the company revealed a modestly smaller than expected EBITDA loss and free cash outflow in 4Q25 but at the same time (and more importantly, in our view) guided to a larger than expected ~-$2.0 bn EBITDA loss and implied free cash outflow for full-year 2026, as it became clearer that 2026 is likely to represent more of a “transition year” for the automaker, with the potential financial benefit from the critical midyear 2026 launch of its first widely affordable vehicle (the new R2 SUV) now seen beginning only in 2027.

A lower outlook for 2026 deliveries than we had earlier modeled causes us to increase the size of our expected 2026 EBITDA loss (to -$1.9 bn from -$1.6 bn prior), while our bigger expected EBITDA loss, guidance for higher than expected capital expenditures, and the push-out into 2027 of working capital benefits associated with a material rise in R2 production we previously anticipated in 2H26, cause us to increase the amount of our expected 2026 free cash burn to -$3.5 bn from -$2.3 bn prior.

Our December 2026 price target, meanwhile, declines to $9 from $10, on account of our lower EBITDA and cash flow forecasts.”

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