TD Cowen Lowers Oracle Price Target to $250

TD Cowen analyst Derrick Wood lowered the price target on Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) to $250.00 (from $350.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“ORCL reports 3Q on 3/10.

We expect a strong qtr of accelerating OCI growth to ~80% cc (vs. ~65% in 2Q), and we see this moving to ~100% in 4Q as OAI capacity continues to on-board.

We are encouraged by 1) strong enterprise checks; 2) DC checks pointing to accelerated builds in TX; & 3) new financing development for both ORCL & OAI.

At ~8x CY29E P/E, valuations remain highly attractive. PT to $250.

While shares have round-tripped since the large Stargate deal was first announced, we remain convicted on the MT opportunity & implications for incremental EPS power.

Regarding unconfirmed reports on upcoming layoffs (in the thousands), we see this as normal course of business w/ ORCL continually optimizing its cost structure as we’ve seen regularly in past yrs.

Combined w/ an expected rev growth inflection from ~12% cc in 1HFY26 to ~18%+ in 2H, we see EBIT meaningfully accelerating from ~10% in 1H to ~20% in 2H.

At ~21x CY27E EPS of ~$7.26 (and ~8x CY29E EPS of ~$18.49), we think the 3Q print can drive upward pressure on valuations as it will be another proofpoint of ORCL’s elevating rev/EBIT growth construct.

Reiterate Buy. PT to $250 (~27x CY27E EPS, ~1x PEG) given valuation reset in the group.”

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