Cantor Fitzgerald Reiterates Neutral Rating on Marvell
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J.
Muse reiterated a Neutral rating and $100.00 price target on Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL).
“Marvell offered a very upbeat earnings report supported by a stronger than expected topline beat for the April Q, significant upside to CY26 revenues led by Inphi/Optics (approaching $11.0B guide vs. cons $10.0B), and faster topline acceleration into CY27 (guide $15.0B vs. cons $12.9B) supported by both sustained growth from Inphi/Optics as well as near doubling of Custom Silicon to $3.8B (vs. $1.5B in CY25 and guided $1.9B+ in CY26).
In turn, look for consensus estimates to move materially higher – we now model CY26 EPS of $3.80 (cons $3.39) and CY27 EPS to $5.50 (cons $4.69).
As for key takeaways, mgmt remains very upbeat on Inphi optical growth, and we readily agree, supported by stronger attach as well as higher ASP’s associated with 1.6T transition.
At the same time, mgmt’s robust Custom Silicon outlook for CY27 is a bit of a positive surprise, highlighting sustained AMZN Trainium business, a strong MSFT Maia ramp, and solid contributions as well from XPU Attach.
We don’t question the design wins, but we do wonder if unit volume assumptions could prove to be too aggressive.
On the other hand, body language from mgmt suggests they think risk is more to the upside than downside.
Bigger picture, we continue to worry about stickiness of MRVL’s XPU’s in a world competing with Google’s TPUs and what we still believe is lowest cost per token per watt with NVDA.
But obviously, mgmt does not share this view, and time will tell.
Put it all together, and we maintain our price target of $100 – equating to 18x our new EPS estimate, suggesting ~15% upside from after-hours level.
This said, we maintain our Neutral rating as we see greater upside for our preferred AI levered names NVDA (trading only 15.3x our CY26 EPS estimate) and AVGO (16.7x our CY26 EPS estimate).
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