What the analyst said
Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Eunice Lee reiterated a Market Perform rating and $5.50 price target on NIO (NYSE: NIO).
“Strong Q4 with first profit & Upbeat Q1 guide, yet R&D pullback warrants monitoring for long-term competitiveness; Strong Q4 with first-ever profit. NIO reported Q4 revenue of RMB 34.7bn (+76% yoy and +59% qoq).
Q4 volume came in at 125k units, (+72% yoy and +43% qoq). ASP improved to RMB 253k (+5% yoy and +15% qoq) on better product mix from ES8, priced from RMB 406.8k (32% of mix, vs. 5% in Q3).
Gross margin came in stronger than expected at 17.5%, with vehicle margin expansion to 18.1%, vs. 14.7% in Q3, driven by ES8, improved scale, and cost reductions from facelifted models.
The company had guided to non-GAAP breakeven for Q4 and issued a profit alert; it ultimately outperformed, delivering profitability at the high end of the alert range and achieving GAAP net profit as well.
Net profit reached RMB 283mn, versus RMB 3.5bn loss in Q3. The beat was supported by a higher premium mix such as with ES8, as well as a sharp pullback in operating expenses.
R&D spending fell to RMB 2bn (-44% yoy, -15% qoq) and SG&A to RMB 3.5bn (-28% yoy, -16% qoq), bringing total opex down by RMB 3bn yoy and RMB 1bn qoq.
While improved efficiency is encouraging, the scale of the R&D pullback warrants attention given peers’ rapid progress in ADAS development and the potential implications for long-term competitiveness.”
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Where the price stands
NIO trades at $3.39. The 5 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $3.70 to $7.10, with a median of $5. This $5.50 target is 10% above the median.
Since the note NIO has moved −41% (from $5.70). 12-month window: day 240 of 365, closes on March 11, 2027.
Track record
This call✓ Target reached on March 11, 2026, 0 days after the note.
Firm track recordBernstein: 79% of its 24 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#14 of 26 firms). Accuracy ranking →
Bernstein on NIO
Bernstein price targets on NIO
3 calls from March 11, 2026 to September 2, 2026. The target went from $5.50 to $5 (−9%). The rating stayed Hold.
- September 2, 2026Target cut from $6 (−17%)Hold$5
- May 22, 2026Target raised from $5.50 (+9%)Hold$6
- March 11, 2026 This noteEarliest call shownHold$5.50
