Canaccord Lowers Tesla Price Target to $420
Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas lowered the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $420.00 (from $520.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.
“Sure, Tesla’s story has evolved. The headlines are focused on robo- this and tera- that – but we maintain an unwavering belief in the inevitable transition to electric transport.
The true mobility revolution isn’t just about who drives – it’s about what powers the journey. It’s electric (boogie-woogie-woogie).
And, importantly, electric vehicle sales still very much matter to Tesla’s earnings; they accounted for the vast majority of 2025 company revenue.
So, we, once again, undertook our quarterly ritual of forecasting global sales volumes – as deliveries are due to be reported later this week.
Bottom line – we are raising our 1Q26 delivery estimates oh-so-slightly from 367.7k to 370.0k based on our work. Please find all the detail in our note.
This quarter’s globe-trotting saw a sluggish China, improving but still meh U.S. and Europe, and decent rest of world (ROW) momentum.
It is noteworthy that electric vehicles may be resonating more deeply with the US public as of late.
Between the pressure of rising gas prices and a recent spike in domestic used Tesla pricing, there is a strong suggestion that a significant market improvement may be on the horizon.
Again, please find all the goodies in our note.
Our work also touches briefly on a myriad of recent events at Tesla, the most profound of which, in our opinion, is the announcement of the Terafab project – partnership between Tesla and SpaceX.
The Terafab initiative seeks to catalyze a new era of “galactic-scale innovation” by producing over 1 terawatt of AI compute annually – surpassing current global output by a factor of ~50.
Musk frames this massive leap as the essential infrastructure for a multi-planetary future, bypassing the capacity constraints of legacy suppliers like TSMC through unprecedented vertical integration.
Based at Giga Texas, the project integrates AI hardware, robotics, and orbital systems into a single ecosystem.
By compressing chip development cycles from months to days, Terafab aims to begin ramping production by 2027, transforming the vision of a “galactic civilization” into a tangible, high-velocity reality.
Though the ambitious path to redefining the semiconductor supply chain is paved with material risk, Elon Musk is perhaps the only figure with the industrial appetite and disruptive spirit to see it through.
Other Mag 7 stocks are now trading at more depressed multiples relative to our previous Tesla update ~16x from ~21x 2028E EPS previously.
As a result we are lowering our Tesla multiple while keeping 2028 estimates intact.
We now apply a ~37x multiple (from ~46x) to our $11.30 in 2028E non-GAAP EPS to achieve a price target of $420 (from $520).
We view this more than 2x multiple as reasonable given Tesla’s long-duration, generational growth opportunities in areas such as EVs, robotics, autonomy, energy storage, and “sustainable abundance.” Admittedly, with this multiple and the operational improvement implied in our 2028 estimates, the margin for error is slim.”
This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.
