Bernstein SocGen Raises AMD Price Target to $265
Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Stacy Rasgon raised the price target on AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) to $265.00 (from $235.00) while maintaining a Market Perform rating.
“We adjust estimates to incorporate better server / weaker PC assumptions (now with EPYC sales up ~50% YoY in 2026), and add in the new Meta AI deal (which consensus does not appear to be fully incorporating).
Similar to Intel we appear below consensus on PCs.
We now model AMD’s Q126 at $9.9B/$1.27, up from $9.8B/ $1.25 prior, and inline to a touch above consensus at $9.8B/$1.27.
For Q226 we now model $10.1B/$1.38 vs $10.0B/$1.33 prior, below consensus at $10.5/$1.42 (lower PCs).
For 2026 we now model $45.8B/$6.48, up from $44.2B/$6.12 prior, and below consensus at $47.0/$6.74 with $14.2B AI revenues (up ~$1B vs prior).
For next year (2027) however we now model $76.7B/$13.23, up from $56.7B/$9.25 prior on Meta addition and server increases, well above consensus at $67.5B/$11.02 with $43B AI revenues (+$16B vs $27B prior due to Meta).
We are warming to AMD as well as they benefit from server CPU strength; we also note that consensus is not yet fully modeling in the Meta win suggesting 2027 numbers are likely too low, though we caution that (similar to Intel) Street PC numbers look high to us (impacting our outlook for 2026).
On the positive, AMD has been better at anticipating and capitalizing on the current server surge and have been successful in signing new Helios partners.
On the other hand, Street estimates already appear to model server sales for the company up ~50% YoY, it remains to be seen if the Helios ramp will really be as smooth as hoped, and (of course) they have yet to prove they can sign large AI deals without giving away chunks of the company in return.
But dynamics (outside of PC) seem supportive and the stock is less expensive than it was.”
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