TD Cowen Reiterates Tesla’s $490 Price Target

TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli reiterated a Buy rating and $490.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).

“What If Model Y L Were To Enter the US?

We See a ~100k Unit Sales Oppty; If the Tesla Model Y L (long-wheelbase | 3 full rows) were to enter the US (timing uncertain), our analysis suggests robust demand potential in the 60-135k range, or ~30% above TTM Model Y sales.

Our analysis leans on unique datasets allowing us to model the MYL SAM in detail. Amid early signs of a US EV demand recovery, we believe Tesla shares would react favorably to a MYL US launch.

Who Might Cede Share? Within the ~1.3mln unit market for >$50k 3-row SUVs, we estimate Toyota commands a 24% share followed by Mercedes (13%), BMW (9%), Honda (9%), Ford (8%) and GM (8%).

We note our prior Rivian R2 demand analysis (here) didn’t incorporate the entire 3-row SUV market into all SAM scenarios, so we wouldn’t view a MYL entry as a threat to the R2 ramp and note a likelihood of additional R2 variants over time.”

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