RBC Capital Raises Oracle Price Target to $190

RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria raised the price target on Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) to $190.00 (from $160.00) while maintaining a Sector Perform rating.

“We maintain our Sector Perform rating but revise our PT to $190 (from $160) on peer multiple expansion, heading into F4Q26 earnings, slated for Wednesday, June 10th with a call at 5PM ET. ○ AI infrastructure financing questions.

Since F3Q26 earnings, two notable developments have impacted the conversation regarding financing of Oracle’s AI infrastructure buildout: 1) In April, Oracle announced an ~18% RIF (~30,000 jobs) with the intention of shifting company resources towards its AI data center buildout strategy, fitting a broader pattern of hyperscaler layoffs to free up capital for AI infrastructure spend (see here ) (we note this is a different dynamic than the AI efficiencies driving headcount reductions narrative); and 2) the evolving Stargate structure: with OpenAI having effectively abandoned the original first-party JV model in favor of bilateral capacity leases, the ownership and financing demands of Oracle could look meaningfully different than originally anticipated.

On the call, we will be focused on any update to Oracle’s multi-year CapEx framework and any color on how Stargate restructuring has impacted Oracle’s financing obligations or capacity commitments going forward. ○ Watching for the pace of capacity ramp and OCI demand.

A central question for F4Q is whether Oracle can demonstrate that data center capacity is coming online fast enough to meet the demand pipeline it has been signaling.

Management has consistently pointed to supply, not demand, as the constraint for OCI growth, and we will be watching for any update on MW additions, new campus announcements, and the pace of GPU cluster deployments.

RPO, which surpassed $550B in F3Q26, is the clearest demand signal available, and we view a continuation of strong RPO growth as critical.

Any deceleration, or color suggesting that deal activity slowed due to capacity constraints rather than demand softness, will be a key differentiator for how the market interprets the print, in our view. ○ OpenAI concentration risks.

Questions remain around OpenAI’s competitive positioning and implications for Oracle as its primary infrastructure partner (Oracle traded down on reports of OpenAI missing internal revenue targets in late April).

However, OpenAI’s latest model cycle is encouraging for its market positioning among LLM providers. On the call, we will be looking for commentary on customer diversification within the IaaS backlog.”

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