Mizuho Reiterates Outperform on Broadcom, $530 Price Target
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh reiterated an Outperform rating and $530.00 price target on Broadcom Limited (NASDAQ: AVGO).
“AVGO Upside as 2028E TPU ~35M Shipments Growing ~10X+, Potential Headwind to GPUs.Our call noted large potential GOOGL (covered by Lloyd Walmsley) TPU ramp as: 1) 2028 TPU shipments potentially at >35M (vs MSUSA est. ~7M), growing ~8x vs ~4.3M (2026), with ~C25-30E >10X TPU growth positive for AVGO.
This could be a challenge to GPUs with our C28E shipments est NVDA at ~7M+ and AMD at ~1.2M+, 2) TPU/ASICs drive >2x perf/watt vs.
GPU, with TPU v8t/v8i ASP at $10-15K/$6-8K vs GPU ASPs of $30-45K even as GOOGL expands Anthropic and Fluidstack TPU-only neocloud DC (TX/ IN).
Drives $600B C28 AI DC Opportunity for AVGO; We See Share Loss Concerns Overblown.
While MTK is trying to gain share with v8i, call noted potential challenges as: a) MTK uses third party SerDes facing integration challenges and potential delays, b) EMIB-T yields still maturing (need 99% to scale efficiently), while AVGO offers a full stack ASIC+SerDes+Packaging platform albeit at higher pricing.
With 35M TPUs in C28E, even at conservative 60% share (vs current >80%), AVGO could see $300B TPU revs (~20M units at $15K), and additional ~$300B C28E revs from 15GW Apollo/Blackstone (est. ~ $20B/GW) driving ~$600B+ opportunity.
We believe this should put to rest concerns of 1) MTK share loss and 2) ASIC loss to GPUs, given the opportunity set. 1H27 AVGO ASIC Ramps with OAI/MTIA ASICs Drive Upside.
We believe OAI ASIC is in development with 10GW AVGO project (Nexus) adding to TPU/MTIA/ARM roadmap. We see MTIA, v3/v4 ~2-3M+ units for 2027 at 2-3x ASP vs 2026, providing significant tailwind.
We see strong AVGO competitive moats with: 1) critical logic die systolic array IP with large compute die, 2) leadership in high BW scaled training/networking integration with TH6 and industry-leading SerDes I/O, posing challenges to competitors such as MTK.”
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