What the analyst said
Bernstein SocGen Group analyst David Dai raised the price target on ASML Inc.
(NASDAQ: ASML) to $2,623.00 (from $1,971.00) while maintaining an Outperform rating.
“We materially increase our ASML topline forecasts following the unprecedented AI-driven expansion in both advanced logic and DRAM capacity.
We raise EUV (including HNA) shipment forecasts in 2027 to 91 systems (vs. old 86) and 113 (old 87) in 2028, and expect ASML to expand EUV capacity.
This is on top of strong ASP expansion supported by throughput improvements. As a result, we now expect EUV revenue to grow at a 30% CAGR, reaching €42.7bn by 2030, more than 30% above street.
We also revised our DUV estimates upward, particularly toward the end of the decade, and now expect DUV revenue to reach €20bn in 2030, from €13bn in 2026.
Top Pick, lifting PT on capex cycle and litho intensity. Higher revenue and operating leverage also support stronger profitability, and our 2028 EPS of €67 is 35% above consensus.
We also don’t see capex peaking, and expect ASML revenue to reach €80bn by 2030 (20% CAGR) and EPS €97 by 2030 (31% CAGR). ASML now trades at trough valuation vs. peers.
Given the clear acceleration in capex cycle and rising peer valuation, we raise our target P/E multiple from 35x to 40x (1SD above mean), increasing our target price to €2,300.”
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Where the price stands
ASML trades at $1,425. The 2 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $2,100 to $2,350, with a median of $2,225. This $2,623 target is 18% above the median, the highest on the Street.
Since the note ASML has moved −19% (from $1,769). 12-month window: day 124 of 365, closes on July 6, 2027.
Track record
This callOpen: ASML has not reached $2,623 yet. This 12-month target is scored on July 6, 2027.
Firm track recordBernstein: 80% of its 25 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#11 of 26 firms). Accuracy ranking →
Bernstein on ASML
Bernstein price targets on ASML
8 calls from January 4, 2026 to July 16, 2026. The target went from $1,528 to $2,859 (+87%). The rating stayed Buy.
- July 16, 2026Target raised from $2,623 (+9%)Buy$2,859
- July 6, 2026 This noteTarget raised from $1,971 (+33%)Buy$2,623
- March 26, 2026Target raised from $1,911 (+3%)Buy$1,971
- January 29, 2026Target raised from $1,642 (+16%)Buy$1,911
- January 26, 2026Kept the $1,642 targetBuy$1,642
- January 22, 2026Target raised from $1,528 (+7%)Buy$1,642
- January 16, 2026Kept the $1,528 targetBuy$1,528
- January 4, 2026Earliest call shownBuy$1,528
