Bernstein Raises ASML Price Target to $2,623

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst David Dai raised the price target on ASML Inc.

(NASDAQ: ASML) to $2,623.00 (from $1,971.00) while maintaining an Outperform rating.

“We materially increase our ASML topline forecasts following the unprecedented AI-driven expansion in both advanced logic and DRAM capacity.

We raise EUV (including HNA) shipment forecasts in 2027 to 91 systems (vs. old 86) and 113 (old 87) in 2028, and expect ASML to expand EUV capacity.

This is on top of strong ASP expansion supported by throughput improvements.

As a result, we now expect EUV revenue to grow at a 30% CAGR, reaching €42.7bn by 2030, more than 30% above street.

We also revised our DUV estimates upward, particularly toward the end of the decade, and now expect DUV revenue to reach €20bn in 2030, from €13bn in 2026.

Top Pick, lifting PT on capex cycle and litho intensity. Higher revenue and operating leverage also support stronger profitability, and our 2028 EPS of €67 is 35% above consensus.

We also don’t see capex peaking, and expect ASML revenue to reach €80bn by 2030 (20% CAGR) and EPS €97 by 2030 (31% CAGR). ASML now trades at trough valuation vs. peers.

Given the clear acceleration in capex cycle and rising peer valuation, we raise our target P/E multiple from 35x to 40x (1SD above mean), increasing our target price to €2,300.”

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