Bernstein SocGen Hikes ASML Price Target to €2,500

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst David Dai raised the price target on ASML Holding NV (ASML:NA) (NASDAQ: ASML) to EUR2,500 (from EUR2,300) while maintaining an Outperform rating.

“ASML result was a solid beat and raise on top line, capacity, and margins, and they suggested further upside potential on pricing and capacity.

We see 3 major upsides: 30% capacity increase. ASML boosts LNA EUV and ArFi capacity by 30% each year for 2027/2028 driven by customer demand.

While the new EUV capacity of 85/110 is not necessarily higher than buy side expectations, these numbers can still be raised as discussion is still ongoing.

DUV capacity of 220 in 2028 is certainly above expectations.

ASML’s price uplift based on productivity improvements is often overlooked; we estimate its EUV ASP is +10% in 2027 based on management comment that LNA EUV throughput is up 45% YoY while capacity is up 30%.

In 2028, there is another HSD % ASP increase driven by the shift from 3800E to F.

We work out the EUV revenue growth to be 42% in 2027, followed by 38% growth in 2028, which should be stronger than buy side expectations.

In addition, management suggested the possibility to raise prices further in addition to the productivity gains.

ASML’s guided margin for 2H26 is 56%, above consensus at 52.6%, driven by better margins for IBM, EUV and DUV.

Going forward, IBM will continue to be strong as ASML is working on upgrades for “every single version” of previous EUV and ArFi tools, while EUV will benefit from the ASP increase, ArFi from a better mix and scale.

We expect the 56% GM to gradually increase.”

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.