RBC Capital Initiates SpaceX at Outperform, $225 PT

RBC Capital analyst Ken Herbert initiates coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) with a Outperform rating and a price target of $225.

“We initiate coverage of SpaceX (SPCX) with an Outperform rating and a $225 PT.

We can appreciate timing risk associated with the company’s space aspirations, but we believe sentiment will benefit from a proven track record of disruption and innovation, an almost ~$2T 2035E TAM and virtually unmatched financial resources.

Moreover, we believe SpaceX will continue to benefit from its position at the center of two of the most profound investment themes of this generation: the evolution of the space based economy and AI.

Our SOTP analysis supports our $225 PT. The Starship is the flywheel that powers SpaceX’s ambitions.

SpaceX has successfully disrupted the global launch market with the Falcon 9 rocket, and Starlink is rewriting the global satellite comms market.

However, we believe the expected cost savings from the Starship will be the catalyst for further unlocking the connectivity and orbital compute markets, as well as the lunar economy.

We currently model ~2,440 Starship launches by 2030, and believe the 2H26 flight test program and beginning of a commercial Starship launch cadence in 2027 are the key near-term stock catalysts.”

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