Wolfe Research Affirms Outperform on SpaceX, $175 PT

Wolfe Research analyst Emilee Deutchman reiterated an Outperform rating and $175 price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX)

“As discussed in our initiation, Starship launch limits are more severe than the market appreciates (i.e. launch licenses are currently limited to 145/yr and infrastructure only supports ~25/yr while the FL pads are built out-see Fig.

3).

That rate is limited both by regulations and range capacity. On regs, the White House last week made an ambitious update to the 2013 National Space Transportation Policy (NTSP) to encourage infrastructure investment & regulatory changes to support >1,000/yr launches (and re-entries) by 2030 vs 217 in 2025 and [per the FAA] a path to 10k/ year by 2035.

Beyond regs, physical infrastructure is the other constraint and today’s announcement of a $100B Starbase Louisiana (LA) seeks to remove that as well.

Today’s announcement paves the way to alleviate the most obvious external constraint to the company’s full & rapid reuse vision for Starship. [The announcement is also an acknowledgment that high-frequency launch is years away.] $100B [not in our model] to build “over a dozen launch towers” is a big price tag for turning 125k acres of marsh into a self-sustaining spaceport with power, spaceship processing, a deep-water port and an airport.

The construction begins in ’27 with initial launches in 2029 in a phased build out with Musk suggesting @ 30/day launches at capacity.”

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