Wolfe Research Reiterates Outperform on SpaceX, $175 Price Target

Wolfe Research analyst Emilee Deutchman reiterated an Outperform rating and $175 price target on SpaceX (SPCX) on August 5, 2026.

“2Q sales were 3%/14% ahead of us/Street. EBITDA was sharply ahead our/consensus thinking on AI’s swing to profit.

Space & Connectivity were in-line on top-line and a few percent off on EBITDA, but AI had $1.1B of EBITDA vs. a modeled loss of $700M.

Commentary on the timing for Flight #14, $100B AI ARR (and the company’s $1T rev target pulling forward) were all good;however, shares are down ~8% in the aftermarket and likely a reaction to higher capex spend to support an ambitious 5GW+ terrestrial compute build-out in ’27 (vs. the 1+GW build-out in ’26).

Our sales forecasts accelerate a year on AI, but FCF takes a hit on higher capex. Looking ahead, a successful Starship #14 will be an important counterbalance to pending share lockup expiry.”

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