Cantor Fitzgerald Reduces Tesla Price Target to $485

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard lowered the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $485 (from $510) while maintaining an Overweight rating.

“We reiterate our Overweight rating and lower our PT to $485 (from prior $510).

We remain bullish on TSLA at current levels with the stock down ~17% YTD (vs.

S&P 500 up ~10%), and we continue to view FY26 as a transformational year for the company as it transitions into autonomy, AI, robotics, and chips.

In our estimates, we currently don’t model the Semi or Cybercab as we await further granularity in the unit economics (yet to be disclosed).

We also remain conservative in our Optimus Ramp up ahead of a potential formal unveil (we believe later this year).

In our model, we update our FY26/FY27 vehicle deliveries assumption to ~1.71M/~1.83M units (from prior ~1.68M/ ~1.91M units), respectively, and we lower our FY26/FY27 storage deployed to ~59GwH/80GwH (from prior ~64GwH/100GwH), respectively.

This results in FY26/FY27 revenues of ~$102.2B/~$102.8B (from prior ~$101.5B/ ~$110B), respectively.

Separately, we increase FY27 Capex to $26.3B (from prior ~$17.2B), per management’s comments, and we lower our FY26/FY27 GMs to 18%/19.3% (from prior 18.4%/20.3%),.

Lastly, we increase FY26/ FY27 Opex to $16.9B/$18.7B (from prior $13.5B/$14.7B), respectively. We arrive at our valuation via a 10-year bottom-up DCF.

Key Risks Include: 1) Delays in Cybercab and Optimus Timeline, 2) Robotaxi Regulatory approval hurdles, 3) Chinese OEM competition, and 4) Slowdown in EV demand.”

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