Piper Sandler Lowers SpaceX Price Target to $140

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter lowered the price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) to $140 (from $156) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

“In its first earnings call, SpaceX easily beat consensus. By December, the CFO says SPCX will have achieved a run-rate of at least $100B/year in recurring revenue, implying upside vs. consensus.

Margin leverage was exceptional, and sell-side estimates should certainly rise. So, why is SPCX trading lower by 7.5% after-hours?

We think this is because: 1) the number of tradable shares will soon rise by >140%; 2) FY27 capex will likely be ~$65B, about $17B higher than we thought; 3) AI cloud contracts are lucrative but cancelable; it’s hard to gauge “staying power”.

We’re boosting our estimates but cutting our target multiple; the lockup expiration overhang will remain a valuation headwind until Summer 2027.”

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