Mizuho Reiterates Outperform on SpaceX, $200 PT

Mizuho analyst Brett Linzey reiterated an Outperform rating and $200 price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX).

“SPCX delivered a solid first public print with rev of $7.8B up 92% Y/Y, adjusted EBITDA of $3.5B up 191% Y/Y, and a net loss of $541M (improved $467M Y/Y).

The AI segment drove the upside, with revenue up 213% Q/Q & 247% Y/Y to $2.6B and a swing to positive segment adjusted EBITDA of $1.1B on the initial Colossus cloud ramp.

Management outlined forward markers including $100B December ARR, the internal $1T revenue target pulled forward from 2031 to 2030, 2027 exit compute closer to 10GW than 5GW, and a Starship tower catch attempt as soon as this month following Musk’s assertion that the heat-shield problem is solved.

Q2 CapEx was $18.4B, with similar levels guided for Q3 and Q4, funded by $100B of cash following the IPO and a $25B inaugural investment grade bond. Backlog stands at $47.5B.

We reiterate our Outperform rating and $200 price target.”

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