Macquarie Maintains Outperform on SpaceX, $250 PT
Macquarie analyst Paul Golding reiterated an Outperform rating and $250 price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX).
“Space revs grew 55% QoQ and 29% YoY, with total customer launches up both QoQ and YoY, offsetting slight QoQ and YoY falls in internal launches.
Total opex rose $389m YoY with sustained acceleration of R&D spend towards Starship, with R&D relative to sales coming in at ~112% (vs.
92.9% in 2Q’25), with mgmt speaking to lowering the cost to orbit by 99% vs. historical.
SPCX still market leading in launch, with 1,041 metric tons of mass to orbit deployed over 1H26, largely allocated to Connectivity for Starlink deployment.
Starship remains the next key step-change in launch capacity, with mgmt focused on catching both stages which may come later this month with Flight 14, also to be the first flight to fly V3 Starlink satellites to operational orbit.
Connectivity revs +32% QoQ and +66% YoY on Starlink subscriber growth (doubling YoY), net of ARPU stable QoQ at $66, with Consumer and Enterprise/Govt revs +16% and +63% QoQ, respectively (and +44% and +108% YoY, respectively).
The segment remains EBITDA positive, yet with R&D for the next-gen V3 satellites, margins fell 360bp QoQ and 60bp YoY to 60.5% with R&D relative to sales +60bp QoQ (and +130bp YoY) to 6.9%, net of GM% expanding 270bp QoQ (+610bp YoY) to 52%.”
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