Bernstein Reiterates Outperform on Sandisk, $3,000 Price Target

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Mark C. Newman reiterated an Outperform rating and $3,000 price target on SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK).

“Strong Q4 results driven by both pricing and bit shipment growth. Revenue came in at $8.97 billion (vs. $8.64 billion consensus) implying 30% QoQ ASP growth (better than expected). EPS of $39.25 was 14% ahead of consensus. FQ1’27 outlook appears conservative and weighed on share price post-earnings.

At the midpoint of guidance, revenue implies approximately 18% sequential growth which suggests roughly 9%-10% QoQ ASP growth, which we view as conservative. Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% was also disappointing we believe due to: 1. conservatism; 2. a higher LTA portion dragging short term ASP increases; and 3. mix change to datacenter SSDs with higher costs from DRAM.

Sandisk’s FQ4 call confirmed LTA coverage now exceeds 50% of FY27 bits and twothirds of FY28 bits, with minimum contracted value of $94B (at floor pricing) and $16.5B of financial guarantees. This pushes actual coverage past the 60% LTA-penetration scenario modeled in our New Memory LTA Part 1 and makes the 60-80% penetration scenarios the most relevant for investors, on our estimates.

This implies downside is more protected than previously thought, at over $200 EPS in FY30 even assuming >70% market price collapse. Our estimates slightly lower in the near term and higher in the longer term as slower price increases in the near term are offset by less price declines in 2028 and beyond and more buybacks help reduce share count significantly.”

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